This is what it’s all about, folks! We have an epic Game 5 on tap between the Yankees and Rays, with the winner advancing to the ALCS.
The division rivals each have their respective aces starting on short rest. Gerrit Cole twirled a quality start in New York’s Game 1 win, while Tyler Glasnow fanned 10 Yankees hitters en route to a Game 2 victory for the Rays.
Will this be a pitcher’s duel or another wild shootout in a series that has averaged 10.5 runs/game to date? Read below for these answers, analysis and expert picks!
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Over 7.5 (115) – 1 unit
The game total opened at 7.5 and has held steady despite >80% of bets taking the over. While this trend would give me pause ordinarily, I’m happy to look past it tonight and instead focus on how (literally) every other factor favors the over.
The Yankees have averaged more than 6 runs/game the past 3 weeks. This isn’t a coincidence, as all-universe sluggers Giancarlo Stanton and Aaron Judge both have returned from injuries during that span. This lineup is one of the best in baseball and picked the perfect time to get both healthy and hot.
While the Rays offense was largely middle-of-the-road during the regular season, they’ve caught fire in October. Tampa has averaged almost 5 runs/game in the playoffs and touched up Cole for 3 ER in his Game 1 start. New York’s $324 Million Dollar Man scuffled to a 4.96 ERA across 3 regular season starts against Tampa, and has served up 7 long balls in just 22.1 IP facing the Rays.
Both starters are pitching on short rest, both bullpens are gassed and both staffs have been rocked throughout the series. Game 5 will be no exception.
Players to hit a home run and team to win
Giancarlo Stanton (+450) – 0.2 units
Luke Voit (+560) – 0.2 units
Gleyber Torres (+750) – 0.2 units
Tyler Glasnow’s raw stuff is close to unhittable. But when batters do make contact, the ball goes far. Glasnow has a 1.29 HR/9 for his career, which bloated to 1.73 HR/9 during the regular season. In his Game 2 start, her served up 2 long balls in just 5 IP despite racking up 10 K’s along the way. I expect at least one bomb from the Bronx Bombers tonight. These are long odds and your bets should be small, but Stanton (1.58 OPS this postseason and 2-for-4 with 1 HR lifetime vs. Glasnow), Voit (.333 ISO this season and 1-for-6 with 1 HR lifetime vs. Glasnow) and Torres (1.34 OPS in the playoffs and 2-for-4 lifetime vs. Glasnow) are my top options to go deep.
Yankees over 4 runs (-110) – 3 units
Hopefully by now it’s clear that I like the Yankees bats tonight, and why. New York’s total has climbed to 4.5 runs at some sportsbooks, so I love taking advantage of PointsBet giving us the extra 0.5 runs. I’m recommending the game total, but this team total is the bet of the night. Hammer it.
Yankees (-150) – 1 unit
A Yankees-Astros ALCS is the worst possible matchup from the standpoint of my personal rooting interests, but it’s what we’re going to get. New York will outslug and outlast Tampa Bay tonight to advance.