Nationals vs. Rockies Picks & Best Bets

We’ll be picking on matchups at Coors Field early and often this season, but today’s Rockies home opener doesn’t quite fit the bill.

The warm, humid, thin air in Denver, combined with the spacious dimensions of Coors Field, make for MLB’s most hitter-friendly environment. We only have two of those elements today, plus we have a lackluster visiting lineup as the rebuilding Nationals head west on their first road trip of the 2023 campaign.

As you’d expect, LHP Kyle Freeland’s home/road splits are pronounced. His career 4.77 ERA at home is a full run higher than his 3.72 ERA on the road. That’s where the steep splits end, though. Freeland relies on contact control (career 6.92 K/9) but controls contact as well as can be expected for a soft-tossing southpaw making 1/2 his starts at Coors. 

In 2022, Washington had the 4th-worst team ISO (.124) and 7th-worst wRC+ against LHPs. Through their first 6 games on 2023, the team has combined for only 2 HRs and a .618 OPS overall. This is not a lineup to be feared, even at Coors.

The Rockies are a far better offense at home against LHPs than RHPs, but matchups don’t get more enticing than today’s, when Josiah Gray toes the rubber for Washington.

In 2022, Gray “led” MLB with 38 HR allowed in just 148.2 IP across 28 GS. That’s good for a 2.30 HR/9, which is only a tick better than the 2.42 HR/9 he allowed in 70.2 IP during the 2021 season. The 25-year-old surrendered 3 HRs against Atlanta in his 2023 debut. Needless to say, he has a chronic case of homer-itis. 

The Nationals vs. Rockies picks and best bets we’re looking at:

1 unit

• Under 11 (-115)
• WAS +1.5 (-130)
• Ryan McMahon o1.5 H+R+RBIs (-125)

0.5 units

• Charlie Blackmon o1.5 H+R+RBIs (-130)
• Alex Call o1.5 TBs (+110)