Just because tonight’s MLB slate is small doesn’t mean it doesn’t have sports betting value we can take advantage of.
Below are our MLB picks for today, Thursday, April 13, 2023. We’ve also included the stats and expert analysis behind our best bets.
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Today’s MLB Picks: Thursday, April 13, 2023
Detroit Tigers vs. Toronto Blue Jays
The red-hot Blue Jays – who we loved as a pre-season futures pick – have won 7 of their last 8 games. They’ll have a great chance to make it 8 of 9 this evening when the terrible Tigers take the field at Rogers Center.
Detroit is off to a 2-9 start and is in the midst of a 7-game losing streak. RHP Spencer Turnbull will start in an unenviable spot. The former 2nd-round pick didn’t pitch in 2022 as he recovered from Tommy John surgery. His velocity is back, but his control is not. He’s walking tons of hitters (5.63 BB/9) and giving up entirely too much hard contact (41.4% Hard%) through his first two starts.
Toronto RHP Chris Bassitt is off to a nightmarish start in his own right. If a matchup against Detroit can’t get him right, the Blue Jays have big problems. Detroit’s 61 wRC+ against righties is 3rd-worst in MLB, and the team’s collective .578 OPS is 2nd-worst in the Majors.
Compare that to Toronto’s titanic team offense, whose 121 wRC+ and .790 OPS are both 3rd-best in all of baseball. They’ve scored 27 runs over their past 4 games.
Even when you look for one, there simply is no advantage to be found on the Detroit side of the field. Detroit has 5 LHBs in their lineup tonight, which might suggest a slight platoon advantage, but that’s not the case. Bassitt’s career .303 wOBA and 8.68 K/9 against lefties is comparable to his .291 wOBA and 7.64 K/9 versus righties. The southpaw-centric heart -of-the-Tigers-order won’t find the sledding any easier.
Tonight’s Game Simulation courtesy of Ballpark Pal supports our statements.
The Blue Jays rightfully are heavy favorites. Bassitt doesn’t project to escape unscathed, which adds up to indicate that there is value on the over for the game total – which is something that rarely happens.
Updates also have come in announcing that the retractable roof will be opened tonight at Rogers Center. The high temperature in Toronto today was 84 degrees, which gives another slight bump to bats.
Here are our MLB picks for today’s Detroit vs. Toronto matchup.
1 unit
- Over 9 (-130)
- Chris Bassitt o5.5 Ks (-105)
- Bo Bichette o1.5 TBs (-130)
0.5 units
- George Springer 01.5 TBs (-105)
- Daulton Varsho o1.5 H+R+RBI (-150)
BONUS
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Brewers vs. Padres Predictions Picks & Best Bets
Thursday, April 13, 2023
There have been various reports throughout the day about who exactly the starting pitchers will be for this game. The logical choices that have been listed are Bryse Wilson for Milwaukee and Nick Martinez for San Diego.
Wilson hasn’t succeeded as a starter (career 5.40 ERA, 1.48 WHIP over 238.1 IP) but early results as a long reliever have been encouraging. The 25-year-old has yet to give up a run across 3 appearances. His line reads well (6 IP, 2 H 0 ER, 0 R, 3 BB, 7 K) but, from a betting perspective, his pitch counts do not. Wilson hasn’t thrown more than 49 pitches in any game, and threw only 34 pitches in his last appearance on Monday.
This effectively is a bullpen game for Milwaukee.
Martinez has bounced between starting and relief roles throughout his 6-year career. He’s the prototypical finesse pitcher (career 4.54 ERA, 1.46 WHIP, 5.75 K/9 over 533.1 IP) who frankly hasn’t been finessing anything this season to date.
Martinez is allowing a career-high 5.40 BB/9 and 13.9% Barrel%. His .235 BABIP suggests that he actually has been lucky to have served up “only” 8 ER over 11.2 IP.
While he’s only 2 starts into his 2023 campaign, Martinez simply doesn’t have the margin for error to be allowing additional hitters to reach base.
He’ll have his work cut out for him tonight against a Brewers lineup that plays to his weaknesses. Milwaukee’s 12.0% BB% supports a team-wide .364 OBP against RHPs. The Brew Crew lineup doesn’t boast many big boppers, but they nonetheless have been getting it done the first two weeks of the season. They’re rank in the top third of the MLB in almost every meaningful offensive category.
The Brewers bullpen’s 1.37 ERA is laughably misleading. The relief corps isn’t missing bats (6.18 K/9) and is enjoying a cartoonish amount of luck. None of the bullpen’s 92.6% LOB%, .235 BABIP or 6.3% HR/FB are sustainable.
Given the cataclysmic gap between the bullpen’s 1.37 ERA and 4.57 SIERA, we officially have the royal flush of red flags being raised for impending regression. I don’t anticipate a return to the mean in a single night, but I do think San Diego’s star-studded lineup scores enough to win a potential shootout.
Here are our Brewers vs. Padres picks, predictions and best bets.
1 unit
- Over 9 (-110)
- Xander Bogaerts o1.5 TBs (+130)
- Christian Yelich o1.5 H+R+RBI (+100)
- Juan Soto o1.5 H+R+RBI (-120)
0.5 units
- Padres (-150)
- Nick Martinez u5.5 Ks (-140)
- Jesse Winker o1.5 H+R+RBI (+120)
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