Nationals vs. Rockies Prediction For April 8, 2023

Nationals SP Trevor Williams is the exact type of starter we like to target against the Rocies. He lives and dies by inducing soft contact (career 7.4 K/9, 18.3% Soft%) and doesn’t generate many grounders (career 42.0% GB%). In 3 GS at Coors, Williams has a 6.11 ERA over 17.2 IP, by way of of 17 H, 12 ER, 3 HR and only 12 K. 

While Williams does have measurable platoon splits, they’re relatively modest. His 4.65 FIP against LHBs isn’t even a half-run higher than his career 4.22 FIP vs. RHBs. While he rings up righties (8.72 K/9 vs. RHBs) at a higher rate than lefties (5.89 K/9 vs. LHBs), orthodox hitters homer more often. Right-handed hitters sport a 1.33 HR/9 (14.3% HR/FB), whereas southpaws slap just 1.16 HR/9 (10.9% HR/FB). This keeps all of Colorado’s big bats in play tonight, regardless of handedness.

Perhaps the most notable trend for Williams is that he does not go deep into games. Over 119 career GS, he has averaged just 5.1 IP per start. The Nationals bullpen is another matchup we like to exploit. In the early stages of the 2023 season, Washington’s relief corps has allowed a 4.85 ERA (4.91 FIP) while racking up only 6.37 K/9, 3rd-worst in MLB. 

Rockies SP Austin Gomber has continued to underwhelm since arriving in Denver. The “centerpiece” of the Nolan Arenado trade, Gomber posted a 5-7 record via a 5.56 ERA (4.54 FIP) in 2022. 

The Rockies front office clearly knows something we don’t, though. While has struggled overall, Gomber has shined at Coors Field. He has a career 3.88 ERA and 1.21 WHIP in 125.1 IP pitching in Denver. 

Unlike Williams, Gomber has pronounced platoon splits, which become even more exaggerated at home. In 2022, RHBs gashed Gomber at home for a .394 wOBA and 29 XBH in only 51.1 IP. The National are leaning into this advantage by penciling in 8 RHBs (including the switch-hitting Jeimer Candelario) into tonight’s lineup.

With lineups finalized, here’s how Ballpark Pal’s simulation sees things shaking out.