MLB Picks

MLB Picks: Sunday, 9/27

by
Jonathan Moreland
September 27, 2020

The playoff fates of *12 teams* hang in the balance today, meaning there’s plenty to play for on the last day of the MLB regular season. Let’s dive into the picks we recommend you make as we look to end our profitable season on a high note.

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MIA-NYY 7-inning total over 7.5 (-110) – 2 units

The Yankees must win this game to avoid a playoff matchup with the Tampa Bay Rays, who have won 8 of 10 against the Bronx Bombers this season. Miami starter Jose Urena gives up a lot of hard contact, while the Yankees will trot out a bullpen game. The hitter-friendly confines of Yankee Stadium should help both teams score plenty on a warm Fall day. I’m avoiding the elite arms at the back end of both bullpens and taking the 7-inning over with confidence.

SF (-121) – 1 unit

The Giants need to win and get help today to sneak into the playoffs. San Diego has nothing to play for and I expect them to empty the depths of their bullpen and bench by the end of the game. It’s not going to be easy – and probably not pretty, either, with the volatile Drew Smyly starting for San Fanracisco – but I think AT&T Park saves him a few home runs and the desperate team claws out their must-win.

TOR (-125) – 1 unit

BAL-TOR 5-inning total over 5.5 (-125) – 1 unit

BAL-TOR over 10 (-110) – 2 units

Combine my analysis from each of the two picks above. Toronto has a lot to play for, but must hope Tanner Roark can put together a stronger start than what my projections indicate he will. Buffalo has been an extreme hitter’s environment all season. This has the makings of a shootout.

SEA-OAK under 8.5 (-110) – 2 units

Marco Gonzales and Frankie Montas are both strong starting pitching options according to my projections. While Oakland can flop between the #2 and #3 seeds based off the outcome, there’s not a lot for either team to play for. I think they run on auto-pilot and finish the season with an efficient, low-scoring affair.

CWS -1.5 (+125) – 1 unit

CHC-CWS over 10 (-110) – 1 unit

Double: CWS + over 8.5 (+145) – 1 unit

The White Sox can win the AL Central with a victory and a Twins loss. The Cubs, meanwhile, have nothing to play for and have trotted out an extremely watered down lineup to give their starters a breather before the playoffs begin Tuesday. It’s warm and the wind is blowing out, so I think the slugging Sox stomp the Cubs, although I’m varying my exposure a bit given the volatility of starter Reynaldo Lopez.

CIN-MIN 3-inning total under 2.5 (-121) – 3 units

CIN-MIN under 8 (-110) – 1 unit

The Twins control their own destiny. If they beat the Reds, they win the AL Central. If they lose, they need CWS to lose as well – and, as mentioned above, I don’t see that happening. The Reds have locked up a playoff spot, but still have seeding to play for. Rich Hill and Sonny Gray are two of the top starters going this afternoon. I see both dealing in one of the more interesting and important games on an already intriguing final day of the regular season.