NYY -1.5 (-131) – 2 units
The formidable Yankees lineup is finally healthy and starter Deivi Garcia has hit the ground running in his rookie campaign. It’s cool and the wind’s blowing in, so I don’t anticipate a shootout – especially given the AAAA lineup the Red Sox have penciled in – but this projects to be a comfortable win for the Bronx Bombers.
CLE -1.5 (+110) – 3 units
Carlos Carrasco projects to be a strong starting pitching option today, while Matt Boyd has had a season to forget. Cleveland still has a lot to play for, while Detroit’s hot August seems like a distant memory. This one could get ugly.
KC (+145) – 1 unit
KC +1.5 (-145) – 1 unit
Brad Keller has quietly put together a strong 2020 campaign. His bowling ball sinker should keep the boom-or-bust Brewers bats at bay. I keep waiting for Josh Lindblom to put it all together in an immaculate start, but he has yet to wholly cure his homer-itis. I think the Royals win, but at a minimum, they stay close in a lower scoring affair.
SEA team total under 3 (-110) – 2 units
SD -1.5 (-160) – 3 units
Dinelson Lamet is in a smash spot. Sunday matinees have given us strange results during this shortened COVID-BALL season, but I have a hard time seeing Seattle mustering much of a fight. Despite being the “visitors,” the Mariners “host” the Padres at PETCO Park. This should keep an additional run or two off the board.
MIN 3-inning total under 0.5 (+110) – 1 unit
CHC 5-inning money line (-105) – 2 units
CHC (-150) – 1 unit
If I had written up this game at the time I originally published this article (MIN-CHC is the only night game today) I would have used Yu Darvish’s picture as the featured image. The 34-year-old has not only been dominant this season (1.86 ERA, 0.94 WHIP and a ridiculous 6.58 K/BB) but steady as well. He has pitched a quality start every time he has taken the mound since his 73-pitch season debut all the way back on 7/25. I think that trend continues today against the Nelson Cruz-less Twins.
I don’t see a ton of value with the Cubs money line – neither I nor my spreadsheets ever seem to get Jose Berrios right – but I think there are multiple angles you could and should attack this game from. If you isolate Darvish’s dominance, this game turns into a 4-unit hammer. The first time through the order, Darvish has held hitters to a 0.618 OPS this season and minuscule 2.69 ERA over his career. His first three innings should be close to clean. I think Chicago draws first blood and won’t need many for that to create a lead to cover the 5-inning money line. There’s always a risk for bullpen implosions at Wrigley – especially in 2020 when no lead or under bet ever seems safe – but too many signs point to Darvish being too dominant for the Cubs to end their homestand with anything other than a series-clinching win.