MIL 7-inning total over 3.5 runs (-105) -> 1 unit
MIL +100 -> 0.5 units
The wind is blowing out to left at Wrigley Field and all projections point to a significant bump to bats this evening. Lefty Brett Anderson is taking the mound for the visiting Brewers, and while I expect him to get hit hard, the extreme sinker-baller should be able to mitigate damage by avoiding the long ball. Cubs starter Trevor Williams might not be so lucky. The Brewers have an inflated team total of 4.5 runs, but I want to back them at 4, and this is my way to do it.
SDP 3-inning total UNDER 1 run (+100) -> 1.5 units
SDP total under 4.5 runs (-131) -> 1 unit
Giants starter Anthony DeSclafani has had extreme splits throughout his career, stifling RHBs but seemingly unable to get LHBs out. While the Padres do have 4 left-handers in their lineup, two are of the switch-hitting, spot-starting variety. DeSclafani also now gets the luxury of calling the spacious AT&T Park home – a massive upgrade from spending half his time at the Great American “Smallpark” in Cincinnati – and should be able to pace himself towards a Quality Start before handing the ball off to the SF bullpen.
CWS (-116) -> 2 units
SEA 5-inning total UNDER 2 (-131) -> 0.5 units
Carlos Rodon is the ultimate boom-or-bust starter, and tonight my projections have him booming. Seattle southpaw Justus Sheffield is hardly a starter to pick on, but the potent White Sox offense should hang enough crooked numbers on the board to setup Rodon to get the win regardless of whether he’s good or great.