TEX @ PHI

1. PHI -1.5 (+110) – 1 unit

2. Alec Bohm over 1.5 total bases (+105) – 0.5 units

3. Nick Castellanos over 1.5 total bases (-105) – 1 unit

Zack Wheeler’s velocity is down a few MPH and so are his numbers (5.79 ERA, 3.61 FIP, 1.39 WHIP) compared to last year’s renaissance. Tonight’s matchup against the Rangers is a perfect get-right spot. Texas has one of the worst lineups in baseball against RHPs (.571 OPS, .092 ISO) and is a team we’ll likely be picking on all season.

While Wheeler grades out as one of the top SPs on today’s slate, Texas starter Martin Perez projects to be one of the worst. His numbers look strong after 4 starts (0-2, 3.00 ERA, 2.55 FIP, 1.00 WHIP) but there is categorically nothing different about his skillset or pitch mix compared to previous years. If you need tangible signs of regression, his .267 BABIP is a career low (.312) and he has yet to give up a HR (career 1.05 HR/9) after 21.0 IPs. Citizens Bank Park is one of the more hitter-friendly stadiums in baseball, and our friends at Ballpark Pal project that the weather will give bats an even bigger boost. 

Everything lines up for a comfortable Phillies win. En route to this projected W, Alec Bohm (career .919 OPS at home vs. LHPs) and Nick Castellanos (career .375 wOBA vs. southpaws) are in prime positions to push their total base props over 1.5. They’re hitting 1st and 2nd, respectively, in today’s lineup and stand to benefit from any “extra” ABs the top of the order will see today.

NYY @ TOR

1. NYY 5-inning total over 2 (-136) – 2 units

2. NYY 7-inning total over 3.5 (+105) – 1 unit

3. Aaron Judge over 1.5 total bases (+110) – 0.5 units

4. NYY (-155) – 0.5 units

5. NYY -1.5 (+110) – 0.5 units

“Yusei Kikuchi” loosely translates to “gas can.” OK, it doesn’t, but Kikuchi is not good (5.52 ERA, 6.62 FIP, 1.91 WHIP) and has never been good (career 4.99 ERA, 4.99 FIP, 1.42 WHIP, 1.63 HR/9) despite having intriguing “stuff.” He’s giving up loads of loud contact (47.8% HardHit%, 1.84 HR/9) and tonight faces one of the best lineups in baseball against LHPs in the Yankees (.352 wOBA, .237 ISO). 

I don’t see a path to a Quality Start for Kikuchi. Whether or not Nestor Cortes (1.31 ERA, 1.43 FIP, 0.87 WHIP) gets a Quality Start might be irrelevant. The Bronx Bombers will score early and often enough that he’ll likely be in line for the win regardless. I love this spot and am rolling out a mini-ladder for the overs and a Yankees win.

QUICK PICKS

1. CWS (-140) – 1 unit

2. COL 5-inning total over 3 (-105) – 1 unit

3. COL (-145) – 0.5 units

4. COL -1.5 (+125) – 0.5 units