Happy Mother’s Day to all who celebrate! We’ve crunched the numbers and shared our best bets for today’s MLB action below. Hopefully this helps speed up your research so you can focus on family, not facts and figures.
Let’s get after it.
MLB Picks (Late) - Wed, 5/4/22
NYM @ PHI (Game 1)
1. 3-inning total under 2.5 (-145) – 1.5 units
2. 7-inning total under 5.5 (-115) – 0.5 units
3. NYM (-155) – 0.5 units
This is one of many games this afternoon that features some combination of a doubleheader and cooler, pitcher-friendly weather. Max Scherzer (2.61 ERA, 0.81 WHIP, 12.19 K/9) and Kyle Gibson (2.93 ERA, 1.08 WHIP, 3.37 xFIP) don’t need the help. They don’t need much of an introduction at this stage of their careers, either.
Both project for Quality Starts. Scherzer projects for an outing that’s stronger, has the better lineup against RHPs (.752 OPS, .338 wOBA, 18.8 K% vs. .719 OPS, .320 wOBA, 21.9% K%) and simply is a class (or two) above the opposition. Gibson’s career 3.38 ERA the first time through the order is enough for me to see value in two, separate in-game totals.
TEX @ NYY (Game 1)
1. NYY -1.5 (-110) – 1.5 units
Gerrit Cole (3.00 ERA, 1.17 WHIP, 10.13 K/9) is not only one of the best starters on this slate, but also remains one of the best pitchers in all of baseball post-Stickeygate. Dane Dunning is settling in as a serviceable MLB SP, but is taking on one of the best lineups in baseball against RHPs (.732 OPS, .326 wOBA for the Bronx Bombers) while being backed by one of the worst (.569 OPS, .259 wOBA).
This obviously is a great spot for the Yankees, but what adds confidence to this bet is the 18-innings of baseball these squads need to play today. If the hosts go up early, the Rangers are likely to wave the white flag to save their remaining arms for the second-leg of today’s doubleheader. I don’t always like betting the runline, but when I do, it’s spots like this.
TEX @ NYY (Game 2)
1. NYY -1.5 (+105) – 1 unit
See the Game 1 writeup above, but replace Cole with Jordan Montgomery (2.88 ERA, 1.00 WHIP, 3.63 SIERA) and Dunning with Glenn Otto (2.89 ERA, 4.36 xERA, career 7.44 ERA). This matchup is much more competitive on paper, plus the Rangers have shown an early team split against left-handers (.769 OPS, .342 wOBA) but by the middle innings, this will have become a war of attrition. The visitors simply will be out-gunned and lose both legs of the twin bill.
PIT @ CIN
1. CIN (-140) – 0.5 units
2. 5-inning total under 4 (+105) – 0.5 units
3. Tyler Mahle over 5.5 strikeouts (-140) – 1 unit
The 4-23 Reds weren’t supposed to be *this* bad, and quasi-staff-ace Tyler Mahle wasn’t supposed to be, either. The RHP broke out in 2020, but has scuffled out of the gates in 2022. His numbers look awful (7.01 ERA, career-worst 1.71 WHIP) but much of that is a result of his bloated .367 BABIP. His underlying peripherals (3.20 FIP, 4.42 SIERA) suggest happier days are ahead. He projects for a quality start today, including 7 strikeouts – well clear of his current prop of 5.5.
The Pirates will counter with RHP Zach Thompson. The 6’7″ hurler looked good in 2021 (3.25 ERA, 1.21 WHIP) but has been a far different pitcher the first months of 2022.(9.39 ERA, 6.73 FIP, 2.22 WHIP). The former Marlin looks to be missing the spacious confines of Miami’s LoanDepot Park. While he’ll take the mound in one of the most hitter-friendly parks in the Majors this afternoon, he’ll face an *extremely* watered down Reds lineup that already was lacking depth.
I wouldn’t recommend watching this game, but I do suggest you consider wagering on it.
1. BAL (-105) – 1 unit
2. COL-ARI under 8 (-120) – 1 unit
3. CHC-LAD 7-inning total under 6 (-131) – 1 unit