Our picks produced this weekend, and now we’ll look to keep the momentum rolling on a relatively quiet Monday for MLB.
Here are my MLB predictions and best bets for games today, Monday, June 27th.
MLB Predictions and Best Bets - June 27, 2022
Oakland @ New York Yankees
Key Facts and Figures
– Oakland is a Bottom 5 offense against LHPs. As a team, they have a punchless .131 ISO, .283 wOBA and .640 OPS against southpaws. They’re especially bad against lefties on the road, struggling to make contact (24.6% K%) and not taking free passes (6.7% BB%).
– A’s starter RHP Paul Blackburn has added a cutter to his arsenal, but still is an extreme finesse pitcher. His 6.54 K/9 is only marginally better than his career 5.56 K/9. As a team, the Yankees have an above-average 21.0% K% vs. right-handers.
– A’s pitchers will see a huge park downgrade. Oakland Coliseum currently rates as the most pitcher-friendly park in baseball (93 Park Factor). While Yankees Stadium nets out as a neutral field (99 Park Factor) our friends at Ballpark Pal see the weather creating a +20% increase in HR Park Factors.
– New York boasts the best record in baseball, sitting at 53-20. Oakland currently has the absolute worst record in baseball at 25-49. Yankees betting lines have been juiced up, but sometimes the difference in talent is so wide that it doesn’t matter.
Picks and Props
- Under 8.5 (-115) – 1 unit
- Josh Donaldson 2+ total bases (+145) – 1 unit
- Anthony Rizzo 2+ total bases (+135) – 1 unit
- Giancarlo Stanton 2+ total bases (+110) – 1 unit
- Yankees -1.5 (-145) – 0.5 units
Los Angeles Dodgers @ Colorado
Key Facts and Figures
– As always, Coors Field creates an extreme, hitter-friendly environment (111 Park Factor).
-Since 2020, the Dodgers have raked the Rockies to the tune of a team-wide .917 OPS, .236 ISO and .392 wOBA at Coors.
– Rockies starter RHP Chad Kuhl has extreme platoon splits, letting lefties light him up for a career .265/.360/484 slash line vs. LHBs.
– Dodgers starter LHP Tyler Anderson has navigated Coors Field well throughout his career. He sports a 4.09 ERA over 239.2 IPs in Denver. It’s not great, but it’s not a gas can.
– Colorado has killed LHPs this season. The team’s collective .350 wOBA, .801 OPS and 19.5% K% against lefties all rank in the Top 5 in the Majors.
– Los Angeles flew cross-country overnight after a grueling 11-inning affair at Atlanta. While Colorado sits in last place in the talented NL West, the Rockies have still mustered a 19-19 home record. Public money loves the Dodgers, and it always loves the Over. Be mindful of lines that are over-juiced.
Picks and Props
- Under 12 (-105) – 1 unit
- CJ Cron 2+ total bases (-110) – 1 unit
- Connor Joe 2+ total bases (+100) – 1 unit
- Justin Turner 2+ total bases (-115) – 1 unit
- Kris Bryant 2+ total bases (-110) – 0.5 units
- Connor Joe to record 2+ hits (+210) – 0.5 units
- Trea Turner to record 2+ hits (+105) – 0.5 units
- Freddie Freeman to record 2+ hits (+115) – 0.5 units
- BOS-TOR: Alejandro Kirk 2+ total bases (+130)
- MIN-CLE: 5-inning total under 4.5 (-120)
- BOS-TOR: TOR -1.5 (+115)
- BOS-TOR: TOR team total over 5 (-115)
- TEX (-140)
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