Odds opened at a near pick’em, but projections indicate that this matchup favors the Braves. My models are in agreement, forecasting Gonsolin and Strider to have comparably quality outings.

Looking back at the Key Stats above, we see that Gonsolin – while legitimately strong – has also been lucky. Neither his .176 BABIP nor 90.9% LOB% are sustainable. I don’t expect Gonsolin to get blown up tonight, but regression awaits, and this Atlanta offense is as good of a candidate as any to spark this correction.

Conversely, Strider’s underlying peripherals suggest he might be due for some moderate positive regression. While Gonsolin relies on contact management (29.8% Hard%, 60.2% Med%), Strider is able to avoid contact entirely, as indicated by his sterling 13.6 K/9 and 31.2% Whiff%. He has an elite fastball (98.3 MPH average velocity) and looks to be the real deal.

Neither pitcher has a significant platoon split, so we’re looking at an extremely evenly-matched, pitcher-friendly storyline tonight at Truist Park. Public money continues to flow in on the Dodgers, but the moneyline has not budged from its quasi-neutral, -110 range. I expect a similar trend to continue with the total, which continues to hover around 8.5 runs and the under flirting with a juice-free +100.  

We’d all love to see a Sunday night slugfest, but this game projects to almost assuredly stay in the single digits. My pick is Atlanta to squeak out a win in a low-scoring affair, with player props centered on the Braves’ big bats, and Dodgers hitters who have strong splits on high-velocity FBs.