MLB Picks

Dodgers at Braves Predictions and Prop Bets – Sunday Night Baseball, 6/26

by
Jonathan Moreland
June 26, 2022

Two of the National League’s absolute best square off on Sunday Night Baseball, as the Los Angeles Dodgers visit the reigning World Series Champion Atlanta Braves on Sunday Night Baseball.

These two teams have not only split each of the past two National League Championship Series, but also have taken one game apiece in this weekend’s three-game series. Tonight’s rubber match is a fascinating one.

Let’s take a look at the odds, projections and player props that offer betting value.

Dodgers at Braves - Predictions and Player Props for Sunday Night Baseball, 6/26

Starting Pitchers and Key Stats

LAD: RHP Tony Gonsolin (9-1, 1.58 ERA, 0.82 WHIP)

3.44 FIP, 3.74 xFIP
.176 BABIP
90.9% LOB%

ATL: RHP Spencer Strider (3-2, 3.40 ERA, 1.11 WHIP)

2.36 FIP, 2.72 xFIP
13.6 K/9
31.2% Whiff%

We have two elite starting pitchers squaring off against two of the absolute best offenses in baseball. The Dodgers (.332 wOBA) and Braves (.328 wOBA) rank 1st and 4th in team wOBA, respectively, across MLB.

While these are two dynamite offenses, both teams boast topflight relief corps. LA and Atlanta’s bullpens sit 1-2 atop the Major League leaderboards in RP xFIP (3.49 and 3.53 xFIP, respectively) and K-BB% (20.2% and 18.9% K-BB%, respectively). Runs should be hard to come by.

Game Projections from our friends at Ballpark Pal say the same.

Odds opened at a near pick’em, but projections indicate that this matchup favors the Braves. My models are in agreement, forecasting Gonsolin and Strider to have comparably quality outings.

Looking back at the Key Stats above, we see that Gonsolin – while legitimately strong – has also been lucky. Neither his .176 BABIP nor 90.9% LOB% are sustainable. I don’t expect Gonsolin to get blown up tonight, but regression awaits, and this Atlanta offense is as good of a candidate as any to spark this correction.

Conversely, Strider’s underlying peripherals suggest he might be due for some moderate positive regression. While Gonsolin relies on contact management (29.8% Hard%, 60.2% Med%), Strider is able to avoid contact entirely, as indicated by his sterling 13.6 K/9 and 31.2% Whiff%. He has an elite fastball (98.3 MPH average velocity) and looks to be the real deal.

Neither pitcher has a significant platoon split, so we’re looking at an extremely evenly-matched, pitcher-friendly storyline tonight at Truist Park. Public money continues to flow in on the Dodgers, but the moneyline has not budged from its quasi-neutral, -110 range. I expect a similar trend to continue with the total, which continues to hover around 8.5 runs and the under flirting with a juice-free +100.

We’d all love to see a Sunday night slugfest, but this game projects to almost assuredly stay in the single digits. My pick is Atlanta to squeak out a win in a low-scoring affair, with player props centered on the Braves’ big bats, and Dodgers hitters who have strong splits on high-velocity FBs.