The weekend is almost here and we’re hoping to start the party early by exploiting some betting value on tonight’s MLB slate.
Let’s dive right into our game previews and best bets, piggy-backing off simulations from our friends at Ballpark Pal.
Tyler Alexander only threw 40 pitches in his last start, so Detroit’s bullpen will be asked to cover a large chunk of this game. The Tigers bullpen has been sneaky good, combining for a 3.07 ERA and 1.20 WHIP over the course of this season.
The 4th-best bullpen (by ERA) in baseball will lock horns with the 3rd-best lineup (by Rs) in what oddsmakers think will be a high-scoring affair. This is in no small part due to the huge park downgrade the Tigers pitching staff will be up against. Comerica Park suppresses HRs at the highest rate in the league (74 Park Factor), while Rogers Centre is slightly above average at a 108 Park Factor.
Detroit’s offense is perfectly average against LHPs, and they’ll face a struggling southpaw in Yusei Kikuchi tonight. While Kikuchi is fanning batters at a career-high 25.1% rate, he’s also giving up home runs at a ridiculous 1.94 HR/9 clip.
A slugfest favors the Blue Jays, but the Tigers should be able to get their licks in.
- Tigers team total over 3.5 (-125)
- Bo Bichette 2+ TBs (+100)
- George Springer 2+ TBs (-115)
- Robbie Grossman 2+ TBs (+145)
- Miguel Cabrera 2+ TBs (+110)
- Jeimer Candelario 2+ TBs (+120)
Jose Urena has burned us at Coors Field before. Is tonight the night he gets his comeuppance? I think so.
Nothing in Urena’s peripherals (4.70 FIP, 4.97 xFIP, 5.29 SIERA) suggest that his 3.13 ERA is legitimate. While he has done a decent job minimizing hard contact (26.9% Hard% vs. 21.2% Soft%), his 4.26 BB/9 and 76.0% LOB% belie his tightrope act.
Urena has been bailed out by double-plays. The worm-killing righty (51.9% GB%) might find GIDPs hard to come by tonight, though. The Dodgers hit grounders at the lowest rate (36.9% GB%) in the Majors against RHPs.
Regression isn’t coming. It has arrived.
- Dodgers -1.5 (-134)
- Max Muncy 2+ TBs (+100)
- Will Smith 2+ TBs (-120)
- Under 12 (-105)
- Jake Lamb 2+ TBs (-105)
- Freddie Freeman 2+ TBs (-155)
Texas Rangers at Los Angeles Angels
- LAA -1.5 (-110)
- Spencer Howard over 4.5 Ks (+106)
- Shohei Ohtani 2+ TBs (-110)
- Taylor Ward 2+ TBs (+100)