MLB Predictions and Quick Picks: Sunday, 8/7

The trade deadline has come and gone, and we’re poised for a fantastic final stretch of the 2022 MLB season.

Let’s look at today’s MLB picks and predictions, with projections powered by our friends at Ballpark Pal.

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MLB Quick Picks – Sunday, 8/7

These two teams are two of the most difficult to strike out by RHPs. Cleveland has the lowest K% in MLB against right-handers (17.8% K%) and Houston the fifth-lowest (20.5% K%). Cleveland’s rate will be put to the test by starters Cristian Javier (41.0% K% vs RHPs).
Starters Cristian Javier (3.24 ERA, 3.39 FIP, 12.21 K/9, 25.1% GB%) and Triston McKenzie (3.38 ERA, 4.10 FIP, 8.48 K/9, 31.7% GB%) are two quality pitchers, but have extreme fly-ball-tendencies. There is a light wind out to RF and Ballpark Pal sees a measurable bump to bats.

This amounts to a bullpen game for Washington, while Philadelphia will start staff ace Aaron Nola (3.25 ERA, 2.84 FIP, 8.44 K/BB). Washington’s relief corps is among the weakest in baseball, with a collective 4.24 ERA.
The Nationals lineup has been gutted with the departure of Juan Soto and Josh Bell, and the team looks deflated. Washington has lost 7 of its last 8 games. Meanwhile, the Phillies have come out swinging since the All-Star Break, racking up a 10-5 record and firming up the team’s place in the playoff race.
Ballpark Pal’s weather and park factors see today’s game at Citizens Bank Park as taking place in an extremely hitter-friendly environment.

This is a bit of a “must-win” for Boston. The Red Sox sit 4 games out of the final Wild Card spot and have dropped 2 of the first 3 games in this series to the lowly Royals. They didn’t make any notable moves at the deadline and this team will likely mail it in for the rest of the season if they lose any more ground.
Brad Keller (4.61 ERA, 4.29 FIP, 6.04 K/9, 51.2% GB%) is a worm-killer. He’ll have the spacious dimensions of Kauffman Stadium behind him, but faces a lineup featuring 8 players with Hard% north of 40% against FBs from RHPs.
Kutter Crawford has extreme platoon splits – .355 wOBA vs. LHBs compared to a .253 wOBA vs. RHBs – and will face an all-right-handed KC heart-of-the-order.
Kansas City has the 5th-worst lineup against RHPs by almost every measurable category – .298 team wOBA, .676 team OPS – and those numbers include stats from the since-departed Whit Merrifield and Andrew Benintendi. This team has a soft underbelly right now and Boston is both projected – as well as expected – to capitalize today.

This is as simple as having two extreme contact pitchers in a hitter-friendly environment. Jose Urena (4.66 ERA, 4.72 FIP, 4.66 K/9, 37.8% HardHit%) and Zach Davies (4.28 ERA, 4.58 FIP, 6.91 K/9, 31.6% HardHit%) are both facing uphill battles this afternoon.
Urena and Davies both rely heavily on their sinkers, throwing it at 57.4% and 50.0%, respectively. There are hitters on both sides with extreme splits against sinkers from RHPs, and that’s who we’ll target.