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2018-19 NBA Betting Picks: Wed November 14th

2018-19 NBA Betting Picks: Wed November 14th

We misinterpreted the form of Harden today as he had a poor shooting performance from beyond-the-arc and looked completely disinterested in the first half. Thankfully, Collin Sexton was in a different mindset to that of Harden and was able to eclipse his overs and settle our record at 1-1 for the day. Now, we shift our focus to Thursday’s big slate and preview our best bet for the day. Good luck to all following!

Best Best Wednesday November 14th

Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards (Capital One Arena – 7pm ET)

Preview

Today’s best bet comes courtesy of the Cleveland Cavaliers at Washington Wizards match-up. We came close to making a play on the Cavaliers line for our best bet today, as the 11.5 handicap seems around 5 points too high when you take into account the form of both teams. However, we feel that a play on Tristan Thompson’s Points + Rebounds Overs is just a tad better.

Since new Cavalier head coach Larry Drew’s inception there have been a number of changes to their line-up. One of those is to give Tristan Thompson more minutes and more touches around the rim. Another is to give TT the license to crash the offensive boards on every possession.

This is Thompson’s stat lines from his past four games:

November 6 @ Orlando – 34 mins, 19 pts, 16 reb
November 8 vs Oklahoma – 31 mins, 10 pts, 15 reb
November 11 @ Chicago – 34 mins, 22 pts, 12 reb
November 14 vs Charlotte – 28 mins, 11 pts, 21 reb

This is the difference in averages from these four games vs the nine games prior:

last four games – 31.8 mins, 15.5 pts, 16 reb
first nine games – 26.8 mins, 7.9 pts, 8.8 reb

Prediction

As you can see there is an obvious trend here and there’s no reason why it won’t continue. Although we don’t expect Thompson to continue to average 16 and 16 for the rest of the season, we do expect him to eclipse a combined 22.5 quite easily.

Pick: Tristan Thompson Over 22.5 Points + Rebounds – $1.77 at Sportsbet


Bonus Tip

As mentioned above, a play on the Cavalier spread against the Wizards nearly made it into our best bet for the day, but we’ve decided to go with it as a bonus tip. The Cavs were impressing in their performance against the Hornets on Wednesday and look to be playing for each other a lot more than they were under Coach Lue. On the other hand, the Wizards continue to underperform and come into this match-up with a 4-9 record. We expect the Cavaliers to at least keep this one to a single digit loss.

Cleveland Cavaliers +11.5 Handicap – $1.90 at Bet365

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