Two undefeated, young, highly-touted fighters don’t take each other on that often – meaning we’re in for a treat this Saturday, December 17 when Michel Rivera (24-0, 14 KOs) enters the squared circle with Frank Martin (16-0, 12 KOs).
Both men will be looking to put a stamp on their resume and show the boxing world how high their ceiling in the sport might be. The 12-round fight at the lightweight limit will take place at The Cosmopolitan in Las Vegas.
Below are my Rivera vs. Martin predictions, picks and best bets.
Rivera vs. Martin Predictions & Picks
Frank Martin will step into the ring with an undefeated record of 16 wins, 12 of which came before the final bell.
Michel Rivera has his own unblemished record, with 14 of his 24 wins coming via knockout. By these numbers alone, Martin has a power advantage, with a 75% knockout percentage over Rivera’s 58%. From an age and experience standpoint, Rivera has had 8 more fights than his opponent, but is the younger man at 24 years old compared to Martin’s age of 27.
Rivera has a modest 1-inch height advantage, but a noteworthy 3-inch reach advantage. He has stopped 2 of his last 5 opponents.
Martin has fought 4 times in the last 18 months. By today’s standards, that is as active as they come. During this period, Martin has been in the ring every 4.5 months on average. Rivera’s last 5 fights have come over the past 20 month, which averages out to a fight every 4 months. Needless to say, activity should not be an issue for either man.
The odds for what should be a pretty even fight are sliding towards Martin. Currently, Martin is priced at -245, while Rivera is priced at +185. I think this is wrong.
Rivera has the advantage of quality victories on his side. He tallied a very impressive win over Joseph Adorno his last time out. That said, Martin had an impressive victory over undefeated Jerry Perez in April 2021. He has stopped 6 of his last 7 opponents, which includes Perez.
Martin is the house fighter and should be the slight favorite. He’s now a heavy favorite, though. I don’t like the line moving all the way to -245. If you convert his moneyline, Martin has a 71% implied probability of winning. I think this is simply too high for a fight between two quality prospects
That said, I do think Martin wins the fight. Nonetheless, there’s betting value if you want to back the underdog. I think this will be a pretty even fight early. However, I do think in the mid-rounds, Martin’s size and power will take over.
My prediction is that Martin wins, but wins late. Based off where the lines are set for rounds and method of victory, I like the over 10.5 rounds. I think Martin will stop Rivera in the 11th or 12th. At the very least, he will win on the cards down the stretch.
Rivera vs. Martin prediction: Martin wins (no value at -245)
Rivera vs. Martin picks & best bets: Over 10.5 rounds (-190) & Martin to win in rounds 10-12 (+800)
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