Anthony Joshua vs Jermaine Franklin takes place this Saturday in London as Joshua returns to the ring for the first time since his defeat to Oleksandr Usyk last August.
Joshua was once the biggest star in the division and by all accounts may still be. However, he has suffered 3 setbacks in his career. He was upset by Andy Ruiz in 2019 and defeated twice by Usyk. A Lot has changed since the Andy Ruiz fight for Joshua. Joshua was once a guy that would go for the knockout. However, being stopped by Ruiz changed that. He became more tentative, moved, and boxed more. That didn’t fare well for him against the very top of the decision as he lost twice to Usyk. Long gone is the guy that went toe to toe with an older Wladimir Klitschko, stopped Dillian Whyte and Alexander Povetkin. What will we expect this Saturday against Franklin?
One that is certain is that Joshua is a huge favorite. Why wouldn’t he be? Franklin’s resume is thin. Outside of a majority decision loss to Dillian Whyte, there really isn’t a name that sticks out in his 21 wins. With the fact that he’s only stopped 14 of those lesser named opponents, Joshua should win this bout with ease.
The O2 arena in London will definitely be rocking but is there any value in this bout? At -1200, there is no value in wagering for Joshua straight up. If you lock at Joshua to get the stoppage, the line is at -330 which is not tasty at all. If you want to gamble on this fight, the prop bets have value. I think Joshua will win between rounds 4-9, which I know is a bit of a range. But to play winning in rounds 4-6 and 6-9, the odds are +260 for each. To me that is the only value here. I wouldn’t advise betting anything else.
Pick: No real value. Consider Joshua to Win in Rounds 4-6 and Rounds 6-9 (+260 DraftKings)
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Ramirez vs Dogboe Prediction
Robeisy Ramirez is a big favorite against Isaac Dogboe when they face off in their fight on Saturday 1st April 2023 at Hard Rock Hotel & Casino, in Tulsa OklahomaHe is currently -450) to win the fight outright, while you can get 3/1 (+300) on Isaac Dogboe to me this is an interesting fight. I think the odds are wrong on this bout. To me this fight is more like a 55-45 fight in favor of Ramirez and I see value in taking Dogboe as the underdog here.
Ramirez has won 5 of his most recent fights, stopping 3 of them, and going the distance twice. In his last fight, he defeated Jose Matias Romero on 29th October 2022 by TKO. Dogboe has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 1 of them, and going the distance 3 times. In his last fight, he defeated Joet Gonzalez by split decision.
I think this is going to be an action-packed fight on ESPN+. To me there is nothing wrong with picking Ramirez, but I just think the odds are too high on him and I can see Dogboe outworking him and edging out a decision. I think +300 is a solid bet for the value on Dogboe.
Benavidez vs. Plant Undercard Picks
Showtime has loaded up the Benavidez vs. Plant undercard with some intriguing fights that should entertain anyone who ponies up to buy this PPV.
Chris Colbert vs. Jose Valenzuela Pick
Chris Colbert (16-1, 6 KOs) heads into a very important lightweight fight against Jose Valenzuela (12-1, 8 KOs). Both fighters are coming off the first defeats of their respective careers and need wins to get back on track.
Valenzuela currently sits as a slight underdog at +105, but may turn into the favorite when it’s all said and done. I’ve never been sold on Colbert when things get tough for him, and this will be a grind-out fight. I like “Rayo” Valenzuela here.
Pick: Jose Valenzuela to win (+105)
Other Weekend Action
We love to find betting value when we bet on boxing, and there’s one fight in particular I love this weekend that’s not on the Benavidez vs. Plant PPV.
Jose Ramirez vs. Richard Commey Prediction
Jose Ramirez (27-1, 17 KOs) takes on former lightweight champion Richard Commey (30-4, 27 KOs) this Saturday on an ESPN+ card. While this is a fight no one really is hyped for – plus Ramirez is a huge 9-to-1 favorite – there’s a play I really like in this one.
Commey is well past it, no matter how much Ramirez’s handlers want to tell you he’s still dangerous. He isn’t.
Commey is an “old” 36 years old. He’s 1-2-1 in his last four fights and has been in many hard-fought bouts over his career. While he will still get fights as a gatekeeper for young prospects or former champions coming back from losses, his days of being a contender are far past him.
I see Ramirez being all over Commey and getting a stoppage win. Ramirez may not possess one-punch KO power, but I see him outworking Commey, hurting him, and eventually stopping him late. At +200, this seems like good value and a great play to me.
Pick: Ramirez to win by KO, TKO or DQ (+200)