MLB Picks

MLB Picks and Predictions – Monday, June 20th

by
Jonathan Moreland
June 20, 2022

Much of the country is off work today in recognition of Juneteenth. The same doesn’t apply for us here at Team TSP. We’ve dug into the data and surfaced our favorite MLB picks for today’s games.

Let’s dive right in to our predictions and best bets.

New York Yankees at Tampa Bay Rays

Game Lines

Yankees (-135) – 1 unit
5-inning total under 3 (-105) – 0.5 units

Player Props

Gerrit Cole over 7.5 Ks (-135) – 1 unit
Gleyber Torres to record a hit (-145) – 0.5 units
Ji-Man Choi to record a hit (-115) – 1 unit

It can be scary targeting the under in any game the Yankees are playing in. The Bronx Bombers lead the Majors in almost every offensive category and are fresh off a 3-game series win away at Toronto that saw the guests pile up 25 runs in 27 innings.

Today the AL East leaders start a fresh 3-game series against the Tampa Bay Rays, with Gerrit Cole (6-1, 3.33 ERA, 1.07 WHIP) locking horns with Shane McClanahan (7-3, 1.84 ERA, 2.72 FIP) in a battle of staff aces. Both of these pitchers have faced tonight’s opponents twice, and both of these pitchers have twice dominated said opposition. McClanahan has tamed the torrid Yankees lineup to the tune of a 1.50 ERA, 1.00 WHIP and 14 Ks in just 12 IPs. Cole has put up even better numbers, posting a 0.75 ERA, 0.92 WHIP and 17 Ks in only 12 IPs.

Both of these pitchers are matchup-proof at the moment. Tropicana Field suppresses runs at the 5th-highest rate across MLB and the Rays have a below-average offense home and away alike. They struggle to make contact for long stretches (25.0% K% vs. RHPs this season) and have only scored 29 runs over their current 10-game swoon in which they’ve managed only a 3-7 record.

If you like strikeouts and strategy, this is the game for you. Back the Yankees to win in a low-scoring affair.

Detroit Tigers at Boston Red Sox

Game Lines

Red Sox -1.5 (+110) – 0.5 units
Red Sox 5-inning team total over 2.5 (-120) – 1 unit

Player Props

Rafael Devers to record 2+ total bases (-130) – 1.5 units
Xander Bogaerts over 1.5 total bases (+105) – 1 unit
Jarren Duran over 1.5 total bases (+105) – 1 unit
JD Martinez over 1.5 total bases (-110) – 1 unit

Detroit RHP Alex Faedo (1-3, 4.28 ERA, 1.40 WHIP) was the club’s 1st-round selection in the 2017 Draft. While he appears to be major-league-ready through his first 40 IPs, he also appears to be very major-league-average. His peripherals support his results to date (4.40 FIP, 4.46 xFIP), but his rate stats are too pedestrian (7.43 K/9, 2.75 K/BB, 36.0% Hard%) to expect him to escape tonight’s outing at Fenway Park unscathed.

I neither want to back nor pick on Boston starter Josh Winckowski (4.50 ERA, 1.75 WHIP, 3.97 xFIP). The 23 year-old rookie is a worm-killer (55.6% GB%). While Detroit has one of the worst offenses against right-handers in all of baseball (.100 ISO, .261 wOBA, .583 OPS, 6.5% BB% as a team vs. RHPs) Winckowski is a young, defense-reliant arm with what’s essentially only a two-pitch mix. There’s too much volatility here for me to consider the juiced-up moneyline, which currently sits at -195.

Back Boston’s big boppers with confidence and enjoy the Juneteenth fireworks.