We have a full Saturday boxing slate, with multiple fights across TV platforms and from different parts of the world – all with multiple titles at stake.
Let’s take a look at our boxing predictions, picks and best bets and see if there is any value in some plays we can take advantage of.
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William Zepeda vs Jaime Arboleda
William Zepeda will face Jaime Arboleda on Saturday 29th April 2023 at College Park Center in Arlington in a 10 round fight in the lightweight division on DAZN. Originally, this was the co-main event for a fight between Vergil Ortiz and Eimontas Stannis but was elevated when Ortiz pulled out with medical complications.
Zepeda remains undefeated as a professional winning 3 of his last 5 fights before the final bell. Last time out he defeated Joseph Diaz via decision. On his ledger he has wins over Rene Alvarado, Yerei Siezar and John Moralde. Before that his best victory was a 6th round TKO over Hector Tanajara.
He had defeated Hector Tanajara on 9th July 2021 by technical knockout in the 6th round at Banc of California Stadium, California.
Arboleda has beaten 4 of his last 5 opponents, stopping 3 of them, going the distance once.
He beat Victor Barrios by stoppage in the 4th round. He had beaten Jayson Velez and Victor Betancourt before being stopped by Chris Colbert prior to his fight with Victor Barrios.
Zepeda is a massive favorite at -2500 while Arboleda sits at +950. Zepada has fought the better competition for sure and has come up big in his biggest fights while Arbodela was stopped in his big fight.
The stats suggest Zepeda has advantage in power over Arboleda, with a 85% knock out percentage over Arboleda’s 74%. Zepada is also the fresher man in age by 2 years. Though Arboleda has the height and reach advantage, I feel Zepeda will negate that with his footwork from the southpaw stance and because of his power. Zepeda has the experience to know how to handle someone that has certain advantages over him.
I think this is a Zepeda by KO victory. But those odds are not enticing either. So the value in this bet is in the over/under and round prediction. I think this will be dominating but i think it goes more than 4 rounds. Arboleda was stopped late by Colbert. While Colbert may not punch as hard, I think Arbodela is more durable that a quick 12 minutes of work. I like the over 3.5 and betting the rounds 4-6.
