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Boxing Picks & Predictions: Davis, Garcia, More – April 22, 2023

Boxing Picks & Predictions: Davis, Garcia, More – April 22, 2023

We have a full Saturday boxing slate, with multiple fights across TV platforms and from different parts of the world – all with multiple titles at stake.

Let’s take a look at our boxing predictions, picks and best bets and see if there is any value in some plays we can take advantage of.

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Gervonta Davis vs. Ryan Garcia

Gervonta Davis and Ryan Garcia will finally meet inside the ring on April 22, 2023 for a 136-pound catchweight bout in one of the most anticipated bouts of 2023 Davis, known as “Tank,” is 28-0 with 26 victories by knockout. “KingRy” Garcia is 23-0 with 19 knockouts.

Both fighters have been waging a war of words on different media outlets and on twitter and now will finally have a chance to settle it in the ring.

Davis has outstanding movement allowing him to constantly change angles and his accuracy of punches are even more important because of the power he possesses. However, at times he can be stationary later in fights and his punch output isn’t as high especially when you are looking at the lightweight division as a whole. But he lands with great accuracy which offsets his punch output.

“Tank” made his professional boxing debut at 18 in February 2013. Less than four years later, he fought for and won his first world title, the super-featherweight IBF championship, against José Pedraza stopping him in the 7th round. Pedraza had never been stopped before. Davis has given us highlight KO reels of Leo Santa Cruz and Rolando Romere and has defeated every test put in front of him.

Garcia has some of the fastest hands in the world. His best punch is a nasty left hook which Tank made clear during the press conferences that it was Garcia’s only weapon. He turned pro at 17 and his most incredible moment of his career was when he got off the canvas against Luke Campbell and stopped the British fighter.

Garcia’s defense improved since pairing up with Joe Goossen but the opposition wasn’t as stellar as Davis. This will be the biggest test for both of these young fighters.

DraftKings Sportsbook has Davis as a -250 moneyline favorite to win the fight and Garcia as a +190 underdog. I think those odds are accurate.

Both fighters are explosive. In this fight, every punch from both fighters can be the one that ends the fight.

Davis will have work to do to get past Garcia’s reach and he will have to deal with volume that he has not seen in his previous fights. Garcia is going to make Davis work. However, Garcia will need to show that he has learned how to tuck his chin and worked on his defense. If he gets caught like Campbell caught him, Davis’ power will be explosive enough to make sure Garcia does not get off the canvas.

Both fighters can knock each other out. But usually when you get to an elite level, knockouts are harder to come by. Not saying it does not happen but to me this fight goes longer than most people are saying. The over/under is 7.5 rounds. I think this fight goes deeper than that. Does it end in a knockout? Surely that can happen but I don’t think it will happen. The fact that I am unsure who will win should push you to take the +190 on Garcia, although I’m surer that this fight is going into the championship rounds. -115 for over 7.5 seems like a solid and safer play.

Raymond Ford vs. Jessie Magdaleno

Rodriguez vs. Gonzalez undercard (DAZN)

This will probably steal the show on this DAZN-televised event.

Magdaleno is coming into this fight with a record of 29-1 (18 KOs). His last fight was against Edy Valencia Mercado, which he won via 8-round unanimous decision.

Ford comes in with an undefeated record of 13-0-1 (7 KOs). He won his last fight via 8th-round KO.

This is a step-up fight for Ford and, to me, is close to a 50-50 fight. Oddsmakers don’t see it that way. Sportsbooks currently list Ford as a -450 favorite.

Based on these heavy odds alone, the play is Magdeleno. He has only lost once and that was to former super bantamweight titlist Isaac Dogboe. He currently is priced at +320, which has a 24% implied probability.

No matter how you slice it, +320 is good value for a veteran with one loss who’s taking on a prospect.

Pick: Magdeleno to win (+320 at DraftKings)

Sebastian Fundora vs. Brian Mendoza

WBC interim junior middleweight title (Showtime)

This championship bout between Sebastian Fundora and Brian Mendoza will take place at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California. 

Fundora is coming into this fight with an undefeated record of 20-0-1 (13 KOs). His last fight was 6 months ago against Carlos Ocampo, which he won via 12-round unanimous decision.

Mendoza comes in with a record of 21-2 (15 KOs). His last fight was against Jeison Rosario, which he won via 5th-round KO.

This is going to be a fun fight, but really to me, there is only one outcome: Fundora by stoppage.

Pick: Fundora by KO, TKO or DQ (+110 at DraftKings)

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