We have a full Saturday boxing slate, with multiple fights across TV platforms and from different parts of the world – all with multiple titles at stake.
Let’s take a look at our boxing predictions, picks and best bets and see if there is any value in some plays we can take advantage of.
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Canelo Alvarez vs. John Ryder
After a rather discouraging 2022 Canelo Alvarez returns to the ring in a homecoming fight. Canelo Alvarez defends the undisputed super middleweight title against the battle-tested John Ryder taking place at Akron Stadium in Zapopan, Mexico.
Canelo is fighting in Mexico for the first time in 12 years and would like to have a better 2023 after his loss to Dmitry Bivol where he attempted to capture a title at 175. Canelo Alvarez is now facing a somewhat less challenging opponent in John Ryder.
Bivol was too big and too skilled for Canelo. He outboxed the Mexican star and whenever Canelo landed, it had no effect on the 175 lb. champion. There are rumblings of a rematch should Canelo win which is a win for Bivol but boxing fans would much rather see Bivol versus the likes of Artur Beterbiev and Canelo face David Benavidez.
Canelo did beat Gennady Golovkin in their trilogy fight. Alvarez dominated him with little more than a jab, feints, and bodywork but did not even come close to stopping and older, slower, uninterested version of Triple G. If anything, Alvarez gassed out in the later rounds. It was not Alvarez’s best performance or year for that matter.
That should change against Ryder. Ryder is a come forward fighter with average defense at best. Canelo by nature is a better counter puncher that would love to use his upper body movement to slip shots and come back with shots of his own. Ryder’s style is fit to this and should make the hometown fans happy with the back and forth action that their star should get the better of.
Ryder is mandatory for one of Canelo’s 168 ln belts. Ryder lost a questionable decision against Callum Smith who is a Canelo victim as he did against Rocky Fielding before that. Two questionable decisions against former Canelo victims and wins over Daniel Jacobs and Zach Parker have landed Ryder this fight.
Canelo is currently priced at -1600. The bookies are telling us Canelo should win and very easily at that. Ryder comes in at +900 for you risk takes. Canelo by TKO, KO or DQ is priced too much at -370. So, what can we do to get some type of favorable odds here?
I like the over under in this bout. Canelo’s average fight time in rounds above middleweight is 9.3 rounds, and Ryder has only one KO loss in 37 fights. I don’t think it will take long for Canelo to figure out Ryder but Ryder is a natural super middleweight that has a good chin. Ryder has been in with solid opposition as well.
Unless Alvarez feels like he’s got Ryder reeling, he’ll be comfortable carrying him into the later rounds where I think the stoppage will come in round 10-12. If he doesn’t feel like he needs to, Canelo is more than comfortable winning on the cards but I do think he stops Ryder late.
Raymond Ford vs. Jessie Magdaleno
Rodriguez vs. Gonzalez undercard (DAZN)
This will probably steal the show on this DAZN-televised event.
Magdaleno is coming into this fight with a record of 29-1 (18 KOs). His last fight was against Edy Valencia Mercado, which he won via 8-round unanimous decision.
Ford comes in with an undefeated record of 13-0-1 (7 KOs). He won his last fight via 8th-round KO.
This is a step-up fight for Ford and, to me, is close to a 50-50 fight. Oddsmakers don’t see it that way. Sportsbooks currently list Ford as a -450 favorite.
Based on these heavy odds alone, the play is Magdeleno. He has only lost once and that was to former super bantamweight titlist Isaac Dogboe. He currently is priced at +320, which has a 24% implied probability.
No matter how you slice it, +320 is good value for a veteran with one loss who’s taking on a prospect.
Pick: Magdeleno to win (+320 at DraftKings)
Sebastian Fundora vs. Brian Mendoza
WBC interim junior middleweight title (Showtime)
This championship bout between Sebastian Fundora and Brian Mendoza will take place at the Dignity Health Sports Park in Carson, California.
Fundora is coming into this fight with an undefeated record of 20-0-1 (13 KOs). His last fight was 6 months ago against Carlos Ocampo, which he won via 12-round unanimous decision.
Mendoza comes in with a record of 21-2 (15 KOs). His last fight was against Jeison Rosario, which he won via 5th-round KO.
This is going to be a fun fight, but really to me, there is only one outcome: Fundora by stoppage.
Pick: Fundora by KO, TKO or DQ (+110 at DraftKings)