The Australian Football League (AFL) Grand Final takes place this weekend, with action set to get underway just after midnight on Friday night Eastern Time.
The two best teams over the course of the season, the Collingwood Magpies and the Brisbane Lions, will do battle at the MCG in an attempt to be crowned premiers of the 2023 AFL season.
Our friends at Before You Bet – Australia’s leading authority for sports betting picks and sportsbook promos – have stopped by to share their expertise. Whether you’re looking for the latest Ladbrokes bonus code or AFL tips and predictions, Before You Bet is the top sports betting source Down Under.
We preview the match below and share our AFL Grand Final Picks for the 2023 tilt between Collingwood and Brisbame.
2023 AFL Grand Final Prediction & Betting Pick
Collingwood vs. Brisbane
Saturday, September 30th
Collingwood will aim to improve their recent record in Grand Finals this Saturday. This marks the sixth time they’ve reached the Grand Final since the year 2000, but they’ve only emerged victorious once – in 2010 against St Kilda. It even required two attempts that year after the first match was a draw.
In the first Preliminary Final last weekend, Collingwood secured a narrow one-point victory over GWS, reversing the outcome from their defeat to Sydney at the same stage last year. This victory was fitting considering many of their wins over the past two seasons have been by slim margins.
However, it’s not all smooth sailing for Collingwood, as they are forced to make two changes to the team that defeated the Giants. Key forward Dan McStay is sidelined due to a knee injury, and vice-captain Taylor Adams won’t take part due to a hamstring injury.
Brisbane is back in the Grand Final this year after several close calls in recent seasons. Their last Grand Final appearance was in 2004 when they narrowly lost to Port Adelaide in their quest for a historic four-peat.
Brisbane struggled to find their footing in the first quarter of their Preliminary Final against Carlton, possibly due to the extra week of rest. They fell behind by five goals, but managed to regain momentum in the second quarter and dominate the game thereafter.
Jack Payne, a regular starter for Brisbane, was unable to play in the last match but may return for the Grand Final. His replacement against Carlton, Darcy Gardiner, played a crucial role in limiting Coleman Medal winner Charlie Curnow to just one goal and limited impact.
In terms of match prediction, these teams met twice during the regular season, with Brisbane winning both encounters. They secured a 33-point victory in Round 3 at home (116-83) and followed it up with a 24-point win at Marvel Stadium in Round 23 (124-100).
Notably, the Lions have won six consecutive meetings with the Magpies, although none of these matches were held at the MCG, where the Lions have struggled in recent seasons. In fact, under coach Chris Fagan, the Lions have won only once at the MCG out of 11 attempts.
2023 AFL Grand Final Pick:
Either Team To Win By 19 Or Less (+100)
This matchup presents intriguing form lines, making it challenging to predict the outcome. Collingwood has won 13 out of 16 matches at the MCG this season, while Brisbane has dominated the head-to-head count but has struggled at the MCG.
It’s likely that this year’s Grand Final won’t have a runaway winner. Both teams are capable of winning this match on their day and it would be a shock to see this turn into a one-sided affair.
Our official best bet and AFL Grand Final pick: Either Team To Win By 19 Or Less (+100).