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MLB Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview, 7/10

MLB Predictions, Picks and Betting Preview, 7/10

A Sunday Night Baseball showdown between the Yankees and Red Sox will cap a full Sunday of MLB action. We’ve shared the stats, simulations and betting selections we’re zeroing in on below.

Let’s get into our MLB predictions and quick picks for Sunday, July 10.

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Marlins @ Mets

Miami absolutely imploded in the 10th inning last night, with two absolutely brutal defensive errors giving away what otherwise seemed like a sure victory. I think this is where intangibles come into play. The Marlins should have a chip on their shoulder today. They’ll also have their surprise Cy Young candidate Sandy Alcantara starting. 

Alcantara’s 1.82 ERA, 0.91 WHIP and 56.5% GB% are all among the best in the Majors. The Mets will counter with Taijuan Walker, who has changed his pitch mix a bit and become more of a finesse pitcher in his age-29 season. Walker’s 3.72 xFIP, 4.02 SIERA and 5.9% FB/HR rate (career 12.7% HR/FB%) suggest his 2.86 ERA is due for some mild regression. With a sub-7 K/9, Walker relies on contact management. Since May, the Marlins have been an above-average lineup against RHPs, sporting a 106 wRC+ and a 14.2% HR/FB%, away from the pitcher-friendly confines of LoanDepot Park. 

By no means do I think the Marlins light up Walker today. The game total sits at a modest 7 runs, which our simulations largely agree with. I do see value in isolating the matchup of Alcantara and the Marlins offense against Walker specifically, though. Our friends at Ballpark Pal project a neutral field, with neutral weather and a neutral all-around matchup. Projections say there’s value in leaning into the “great” pitcher rather than the “good” one.

1 unit

  • Under 7 (-120)
  • MIA 5-inning moneyline (-125)
  • MIA 5i tt o1.5 (-110)

0.5 units

  • Jon Berti 2+ TBs (+140)
  • Garrett Cooper 2+ TBs (+135)
  • Francisco Lindor 2+ TBs (+130)
 
pirates brewers

Pirates @ Brewers

Brewers SP Eric Lauer is in a superb spot today against the Pirates. Pittsburgh has the second-highest K% against LHPs in the Majors, striking out at a 26% clip while mustering a skimpy .654 OPS and 83 wRC+ as a team this season. Lauer is particularly devastating against fellow left-handers, striking out LHBs at a 31% rate this season to date. He’ll face a Pirates lineup with 4 left-handers starting today.

Milwaukee has hardly been world-beaters against LHPs themselves (.304 wOBA, 93 wRC+ as a team this season), but gets a much softer matchup against Pirates starter Jose Quintana (3.33 ERA, 3.95 SIERA). The 9-year veteran isn’t usually someone I pick on, but he is averaging less than 5.1 IPs per start this year. Pittsburgh has one of the worst bullpens in baseball (4.70 ERA, 1.41 WHIP, 43 HRs allowed in 85 games) and should cough up any additional run support Lauer needs to lock up the win.

 

1 unit

  • MIL -1.5 (+125)
  • Eric Lauer o5.5 Ks (-120)

0.5 units

  • Andrew McCutchen 2+ TBs (+115)
  • Willy Adames 2+ TBs (+105)  

Lopsided Lineup vs. Pitcher Matchup

Yankees @ Red Sox

Sunday Night Baseball travels to Fenway Park for what feels like the thousandth time. The top two offenses in the American League will square off in the fourth and final game of a series that has seen an average of 13 runs scored per game. 

Our friends at Ballpark Pal see bats receiving a bump from the weather, plus both teams scoring close to five runs in simulations. The Red Sox and Yankees are beyond familiar with one another, and every model I’m seeing is in agreement that this should be a close, competitive affair, with both sides plating plenty of runs. 

The Yankees have a deeper lineup than the Red Sox, and that’s before news broke that Rafael Devers will not be playing this evening. Oddsmakers have this game pegged as a virtual coin flip, but have a hard time seeing how New York doesn’t take tonight’s series finale. I’m also a BvP truther and Pivetta has been lit up by this lineup on multiple occasions. There should be plenty of balls carrying into and over the Green Monster tonight.

I’m backing the bigger bats blowing the game open in a Bronx Bombers win.

1 unit

  • NYY tt o4.5 (-125)
  • Josh Donaldson 2+ TBs (+115)
  • Anthony Rizzo 2+ TBs (+110)
  • Giancarlo Stanton 2+ TBs (+120)
  • J.D. Martinez 2+ TBs (-105)

0.5 units

  • NYY (-130)
  • Aaron Hicks to get a hit (-140)

Quick Picks

1 unit

  • CLE (-118)
  • HOU -1.5 (-105)
  • HOU tt o4.5 (-110)
  • LAD -1.5 (-125)
  • COL (-104)
  • COL tt o4.5 (-110)
  • Juan Soto 2+ TBs (+130)
  • Jose Abreu 2+ TBs (+100)
  • Carlos Correa 2+ TBs (+110)
  • Max Kepler 2+ TBs (+140)
  • Justin Turner 2+ TBs (+130)
  • Brendan Rodgers 2+ TBs (+100)

0.5 units

  • Nelson Cruz 2+ TBs (+115)
  • Eloy Jimenez 2+ TBs (+105)
  • Byron Buxton 2+ TBs (+110)
  • Nate Lowe 2+ TBs (+125)
  • Marcus Semien 2+ TBs (+115)

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