Happy Wednesday, Total Sports Picks readers! Today’s my birthday and – while I fancy myself a sports betting expert by trade, not luck – I hope to be the one giving you a gift by way of winning MLB picks.
Today’s lines are provided by PointsBet.
Let’s dive in.
PHI team total under 3 (-121) – 1 unit
NYM-PHI under 7.5 (-110) – 1 unit
My models project Jacob DeGrom to be the top overall starting pitcher. While it doesn’t love Zack Wheeler nearly as much, it does think he’s in line for a quality start. Even though these are two of the Top 5 offenses in the NL playing in one of the Top 5 most hitter-friendly ballparks in all of baseball, this has the makings of a lower scoring affair. Bet on one, if not both, of the lineups being locked down and take the under.
NYY -1.5 (-140) – 1 unit
Gerrit Cole has (finally) rounded into ace-like form, having allowed only 1 ER across hist last two starts. Tanner Roark has been hittable all season, but might be asked to take one for the team tonight and tough it out as long as possible after Toronto served up 20 runs in last night’s loss to this same Yankees squad. Some might see this as a letdown spot for the Bronx Bombers, but I don’t think it will matter either way as far as the spread is concerned. New York should cover.
KC (-115) – 2 units
Speaking of letdowns, the Royals lost to Matt Boyd last night. I didn’t bet on the matchup, but I will bet on the bounce-back tonight. Brady Singer has impressed thus far in his rookie campaign and is coming off a one-hit, 8 IP gem against Cleveland. KC shouldn’t have trouble scoring off Tarik Skubal and giving Singer the support he needs to secure the W.
ATL -1.5 (-121) – 2 units
It’s humid in Atlanta and the wind’s blowing out. Baltimore rookie Keegan Akin is an extreme fly-ball pitcher facing a Braves lineup that’s healthy for the first time in weeks. It’s going to be a long night for the young southpaw. It’s probably going to be a long night for the Atlanta bullpen, too – Cole Hamels is not expected to pitch deep into the game – but give me the Braves’ bats 10 times out of 10 over Baltimore’s in a shootout.
CLE (-115) – 2 units
Father Time has finally caught up to the previously timeless Jon Lester. Aaron Civale has been a breath of fresh air for the Indians and my projections think he gives the Tribe another serviceable start tonight. He should have ample run support to work with.
CWS (-150) – 2 units
CWS team total over 4.5 (-121) – 1 unit
CWS -1.5 (+130) – 1 unit
If you’re a loyal reader, than you know I need the Twins to scratch out a win for the sake of my MLB futures picks. If you’re a loyal reader, then you also know I bet with my head, not my heart. The White Sox are white hot and should light up a gassed Minnesota bullpen. I suspect they light up Twins starter Jake Odorizzi first. The right-hander will make his first start since being activated from the disabled list and has struggled with homer-itis throughout his career. Weather forecasts predict hitter-friendly conditions on the South Side and I think the Pale Hose have their way with the visiting staff. On the flipside, Lucas Giolito – who has quietly put together a dominant season as the staff ace – faces the Twins at a time when their bats couldn’t be any colder. The Bomba Squad has only scored 13 runs across their last 5 contests. Their slide will continue for at least one more night.
OAK (-121) – 1 unit
LAD (-135) – 2 units
CIN -1.5 (-125) – 1 unit
BOS-MIA under 9 (-115) – 1 unit