MLB Picks

MLB Picks: Sunday, 9/13

by
Jonathan Moreland
September 13, 2020

NFL kicks off today, but there’s an exciting day of MLB action still on offer. Let’s take a look at the best bets you should consider this Sunday.

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Let’s get into today’s MLB picks!

PIT-KC 5-inning total: Under 4.5 (-110) – 1 unit

PIT under 4 (-131) – 2 units

PIT-KC under 9 (-125) – 1 unit

Brad Keller is arguably the most underrated starting pitcher in baseball, but there’s no argument that he’s in a smash spot today at home against the punchless Pirates. While Keller’s 4.88 SIERA suggests his 2.66 ERA is in line for significant regression, the right-hander has only allowed 1 ER in 18 IP in the pitcher-friendly confines of Kauffman Stadium this season. Pittsburgh counters with junk-baller Chad Kuhl, who projects to be a serviceable opener. Neither pitcher is prone to blowups, and neither offense is suited for shootouts. This should be a low-scoring affair that I’m going to triple-dip with under bets.

CIN-STL under 8.5 (-125) – 1 unit

Throughout his career, Carlos Martinez has been equally effective as a starter and reliever. His 12.27 ERA is an eyesore, but he has only pitched 7.1 innings and there aren’t any red flags with his velocity or peripherals. Reds right-hander Tyler Mahle is in the midst of a breakout season and one of the few bright spots in a disappointing Cincinnati campaign. I think both starters pitch well today and this NL Central showdown is a low-scoring one.

OAK-TEX under 8.5 (-136) – 1 unit

TEX (+130) – 2 units

Lance Lynn projects to be one of the top starting pitchers on the entire slate and Oakland will finish its first series without All-Star third baseman Matt Chapman, who’s out for the remainder of the season with a hip injury. The Rangers have struggled to score all season and even though Frankie Montas is clearly a different pitcher sans steroids, he shouldn’t be shelled this Sunday. This should be a low-scoring affair where the superior starter scratches out a win.

CLE over 3.5 (-125) – 3 units

Michael Pineda has yet to serve up a HR in 2020, albeit after only 13.0 IP. The hulking 6’7″ hurler has allowed more than 1.6 HR/9 since 2017 and I think he gives up at least one long ball today. This is a close-to-must-win game for the Indians if they want to stay in the AL Central hunt and I don’t think their scoring stops with just the one predicted poke. Win or lose, Cleveland should plate more than a few runs today. Take the over on the team total.