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MLB Picks: Saturday, 9/19

MLB Picks: Saturday, 9/19

Our team had a rough day yesterday sharing picks on Twitter, but we’ve had a profitable season to date and have to take our bad nights with our great ones. We’ll look to rebound with our MLB picks for Saturday – and we have a great read on a few of these matchups. 

All lines provided by PointsBet.

Let’s get back to our winning ways!

TOR (-145) – 2 units

Vince Velazquez is one of the more volatile pitchers in the game, Hyun-jin Ryu one of the most steady. While Velazquez’s peripherals suggest he has pitched better than his 6.46 ERA would indicate, his 4.56 BB/9 and 1.59 HR/9 are in-line with his career norms. I expect another inefficient outing from the right-hander. The Phillies ‘pen is one of the worst in baseball and I think the Blue Jays have no problems giving Ryu enough run support to secure the win.

CLE -1.5 (-121) – 1 unit

Spencer Turnbull has been a perfectly average starting pitcher in 2020, but he’s in a particularly terrible spot against Cleveland today. The Tigers have lost 8 of their last 10 and have looked anemic at the plate since CJ Cron and Jonathan Schoop went down with injuries. Indians starter Triston McKenzie has put together a strong – and surprising! – rookie campaign and should have no trouble carving up the AAAA Tigers lineup today. 

WAS-MIA first 5 innings under 4.5 (-145) – 1 unit

WAS-MIA under 8 (-121) – 1 unit

Patrick Corbin and Pablo Lopez are two above-average pitchers starting against middle-of-the-road lineups in an extreme pitcher’s park. My projections have them both more likely to have quality starts than not. Despite the over receiving more than 90% of bets, the total has dropped half a run. I’m not over-thinking this one. Follow the sharp money (and the sharp arms) and bet the under.

PIT first 7 innings over 2.5 (-115) – 3 units

PIT +1.5 (-110) -1 unit

Why yes, I am indeed hammering the over for the worst lineup in baseball. St. Louis starter Kwang Hyun Kim has a sparkling 0.63 ERA, but a 5.22 SIERA, 5.34 K/9 and .193 BABIP. With even the slightest regression tonight, the punchless Pirates will have no problems plating a few off Kim and the relief arms behind him. Will that be enough to secure the win? I’m not sure. Pittsburgh will essentially throw a bullpen game, so there’s risk, but I like the odds of them at least covering the run line. Remember: 29% of all MLB games are decided by one run.

Double: ATL / ATL-NYM under 8.5 (+235) – 0.5 units

It’s a cool, damp night in Queens and the wind is blowing in. Ian Anderson has been cruising. The Braves lineup is healthy again and Mets left-hander David Peterson is perfectly hittable, but I don’t see Atlanta’s offense exploding tonight. Understandably heavy favorites, I can’t see value in backing the Braves via the money line (-170) so I’m splitting the difference. The NL East leaders should win – and comfortably – in a low-scoring affair.

HOU -1.5 (-110) – 1 unit

Houston’s playoff spot is likely but not locked. The Astros will be ready to tee off on Luke Weaver tonight. Weaver likely won’t receive a lot of run support from the AAAA lineup Torey Lovullo has penciled in tonight. This is a smash spot, with or without the trash cans.

SD -1.5 (-136) – 1 unit

San Diego has gone 11-4 in September and now boasts the 2nd highest run differential in all of baseball. The Padres are only 4 games behind the Dodgers and have plenty to play for tonight. Recently acquired ace Mike Clevinger takes the mound against Justus Sheffield. The slider-heavy Seattle southpaw has extreme platoon splits (.348 career wOBA vs. RHBs) and will face a lineup whose four most dangerous hitters all mash from the right side. All of my projections agree that San Diego should cover the run line tonight.

TEX-LAA first 5 innings under 4 (-110) – 1 unit

TEX-LAA first 7 innings under 6 (-136) – 2 units

I’m going to double-dip on the Lance Lynn v. Andrew Heaney showdown. These two staff aces have faced each other twice already, with Texas winning both games 7-3 and 7-1. The Rangers will have an extremely different lineup tonight than they did in either of the first two matchups. Texas has settled in as the absolute worst offensive squad in the American League and will trot out a AAAA lineup this evening. Heaney should put together a quality start and clear any strikeout-related player props you can find. He and Lynn make up two of the top overall starting pitching options and I’m confident they combine to keep this game low-scoring for as long as they’re in it.

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