Let’s jump right in to our picks and predictions for tonight’s MLB games.
MLB Picks - Friday, June 3, 2022
Detroit at New York
– NY -1.5 (-160) – 0.5 units
– Cole to record a win (-140) – 0.5 units
I understand if it’s groanworthy to start with a heavily juiced, heavily favored matchup, but there’s still value here.
Gerrit Cole has been as dominant as ever, piling up 72 strikeouts in just 57.2 IPs en route to a 4-1 record, 3.12 ERA and 1.04 WHIP. From an offensive standpoint, the Tigers have one of the least productive lineups in baseball against RHPs. Detroit’s .269 wOBA, .107 ISO and .598 OPS are all 2nd worst in MLB.
We could talk about how overmatched Tigers SP Elvin Rodriguez will be, but I frankly don’t think we need to. Every model I reference has Rodriguez projected as one of the worst and Cole as the very best option on tonight’s slate. Rather than chasing the -350 moneyline, I’m finding action on the runline and pitcher win prop.
Minnesota at Toronto
– TOR 5-inning total over 3.5 runs (+115) – 0.5 units
– TOR over 5.5 runs (-110) – 0.5 units
– TOR -1.5 (-120) – 0.5 units
Perennial gas can Chi Chi Gonzalez (career 5.64 ERA, 1.49 WHIP, 5.33 K/9) will join the Twins taxi squad and start tonight’s series opener against Toronto. Minnesota will be without Max Kepler as well as three key bullpen arms due to Canada’s COVID-19 vaccination requirements – meaning the AL Central leaders will be thinnest at the position they’ll likely need most.
Meanwhile, the Blue Jays have won 8 straight and scored an average of 7 runs/game during this stretch. Left-handed starter Yusei Kikuchi hasn’t been great (3.48 ERA, 1.35 WHIP, 4.23 xFIP) but the Twins have only scored 2 runs over their past 3 games and have been below average against southpaws so far this season. He’ll get scuffed up by the top of the Twins order, but will have all the run support he needs to secure the win.
I’m on multiple player props from this game as well. See below. Tail the action and take cover – hard hit balls incoming!
Houston at Kansas City
– HOU (-136) – 1 unit
Our friends at Ballpark Pal have Houston projected for a 53.1% win probability (-113) but I have them a bit higher. I like this spot for the Astros, too.
Royals starter Brady Singer has developed a much-needed third pitch -a change-up – and is riding this new offering to a mini breakout through his first 25.1 IPs this season. His underlying periphs look good – Singer’s 2.49 ERA is supported by a 9.24 K/9, 55.9% GB% and 2.63 xFIP – but his platoon splits still give me pause. The former first-round pick is still giving up lots of hard contact to LHBs (36.7% Hard%, .331 wOBA against southpaws) and will face three of the best in the AL tonight.
Jose Urquidy is far from a world-beater (4-2, 4.80 ERA, 4.42 xFIP) but has been victimized by an insanely bloated 1.60 HR/9 and .364 BABIP. He’s an extreme flyball pitcher (34.5% career GB%) and will benefit from the run-suppressing dimensions of Kauffman Stadium tonight. Baseball traditionalists can also factor in the overall posture of these clubs – KC scuffling at 16-33, while Houston is surprising at 33-18 – and see this as one of those uneventful, 4-3-type midseason ‘Stros wins that nobody will remember come September. You’ll remember it, though – because you’ll tail this pick and win.
Atlanta at Colorado
– ATL over 6 runs (-120) – 1.5 units
Our last pick is a Ballpark Pal special. They have Atlanta pegged for 6 runs, Coors Field seeing one of the biggest offensive weather boosts on today’s slate, and virtually every Braves batter at the top of prop and RC% charts. It’s truly enough to back at face value.
Colorado starter Chad Kuhl (3.56 ERA, 1.27 WHIP, 7.13 K/9) has found a surprising amount of success with his new club given his skillset, but that’s largely due to his home/road splits. The right-hander sports a tidy 8.53 K/9, 0.47 HR/9 and 3.59 FIP on the road, but a paltry 4.41 K/9, 1.26 HR/9 and 4.92 FIP at Coors Field. He won’t be missing many bats this evening, and the reigning World Series Champions will make him pay.
Run, do not walk, to make this pick before it moves to 6.5 runs.
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. 2+ total bases (-110)
- Teoscar Hernandez 2+ total bases (+110)
- Matt Olson 2+ total bases (-125)
- George Springer 2+ total bases (-110)
- Ozzie Albies 2+ total bases (-120)
- Marcell Ozuna 2+ total bases (-140)