We continued our winning ways yesterday and will look to start the week with similar results.
If you’re not already, be sure to follow Total Sports Picks on Twitter to see our best bets even on days where we don’t publish a full write-up. That’s where we shared yesterday’s winners – now read on for today’s!
All lines provided by PointsBet.
Nationals-Mets under 8.5 (-115)
We open our picks with a southpaw showdown in the NL East. At first glance, the Nationals money line jumped out to me (the game is a relative pick’em) since Mets starter Steven Matz has gotten off to such a slow start. His underlying peripherals suggest he’s due for positive regression though, and I’m willing to be that happens tonight.
Matz squares off with Patrick Corbin, a trendy dark horse pick for Cy Young. Corbin had a strong 2019 campaign and has picked up where he left off. I’d expect him to deliver a quality start.
BvP truthers will be happy to see that both starters historically have had success against tonight’s opposition. BvP skeptics will be happy to see that both pitchers grade out as strong options in my starting pitching model. No matter which side of the fence you fall on, you should follow this pick and bet the under.
Twins-Brewers under 9 (-125)
If you like high-scoring shootouts, then I suggest you watch a different game this evening. Both offenses are scuffling and both pitchers – Randy Dobnak for the Twins and Adrian Houser for the Brewers – generate groundballs at an extreme rate. Neither lineup is particularly impressive against right-handed, extreme sinker-balling starters.
Both the Bomba Squad and the Brew Crew can unleash offensive onslaughts at a moment’s notice, but I don’t think that happens tonight. Neither pitcher has given up a single home run all season (!!!) and even if their respective streaks break, I’d expect the dongs dingered to be of the solo variety. Take the under here.
Diamondbacks-Rockies over 11.5 (-115)
I usually avoid taking the over when the total is this high, but I have a hunch that we see offensive fireworks in Denver this evening.
Robbie Ray has been giving up hard contact at a 47% clip so far this season – alarming even by his standards. His HR/FB ratio has bloated to 24%. He’s opposed by the always volatile Jon Gray. I’m a big believer that there’s upside left for the former first-round pick, but my models don’t expect him to dazzle this evening.
Combine poor results with lackluster projections, then add in the game’s most extreme hitting environment AND a forecast calling for hot and humid conditions, with the wind blowing slightly out, and you have too many indications pointing to the over to not take it.
Dodgers -1.5 (-110)
Lock this in and thank me later.