The Patriots Day matinee between the White Sox and Red Sox has already come and gone, but we have a full evening of baseball action ahead of us.
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Let’s get into tonight’s MLB picks!
San Francisco at Philadelphia
– PHI 3-inning total under 1 (-115) – 0.5 units
– Pitcher Prop – Player to record a win: Kevin Gausman (+140) -> 0.5 units
– SF to win (-109) – 1 unit
Kevin Gausman is a changed pitcher, and while he’s leaving the spacious confines of AT&T Park today, he’s in a good spot to outduel Chase Anderson tonight. While I expect Gausman to give up a few runs, I do think he navigates the order cleanly the first time through. This might not end up being a pretty one, but it should be profitable.
St. Louis at Washington
– STL total first 3 innings under 1 (-115) – 0.5 units
– 3-inning total under 2.5 (-121) – 1 unit
– Alternate total under 8.5 (-131) – 1 unit
Nationals starter Joe Ross has extreme platoon splits and should be able to get through the RHB-heavy order at least once before allowing a run. Cardinals right-hander Jack Flaherty faces a top-heavy Washington lineup. While Ross jumps out as potential value, Flaherty is the better pitcher and projects to have a strong outing as well. If this game turns into a shootout, it likely will happen later in the game – and even then, my spreadsheets say it should be the bullpens, not the starters, who cough up the crooked numbers.
Tampa at Kansas City
– 3-inning total under 2.5 (-145) – 1.5 units
– 5-inning total under 3.5 (-105) – 0.5 unit
– Alternate total under 8 (-145) – 1.5 units
Kauffman Stadium is one of the more pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. Combine that with two homer-phobic SPs – Danny Duffy, who is an above-average starter when avoiding the long-ball, and Josh Fleming, an extreme ground-ball-inducing southpaw – and you have a recipe for a low-scoring affair. Add in cool temperatures and the wind blowing in from left field, and you have an amazing spot to back the starting pitchers and the under.
Milwaukee at San Diego
– 3-inning total under 2 (-125) – 1 unit
– 5-inning total under 3.5 (-125) – 1 unit
– SD total under 3.5 (-110) – 1 unit
Joe Musgrove’s breakout is 3-years past due, but is nonetheless legitimate. He should have another strong start today against the punch-less Brew Crew, who will again be without Christian Yelich. Brandon Woodruff, Milwaukee’s staff ace, absolutely should be up to the task to turn this into a pitcher’s duel. Ultimately, I think San Diego’s talent advantage will be too much and the Pads should squeak out the win in a low-scoring affair. That said, I also could see Brandon Woodruff legitimately put together a Cy Young-winning campaign this season, so while I’ll stay clear of the outcome, I’ll happily recommend the under.
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Los Angeles at Seattle
– LAD -1.5 (-118) – 0.5 units
– LAD (-196) – 1 unit
– 5-inning total over 2.5 (-110) – 0.5 units
Seattle southpaw Justus Sheffield projects to pitch serviceably, but I think the Dodgers come out a bit more fired up than usual after last night’s series finale letdown against the Padres. I think this neither turns into a shootout, nor a blowout, but I do think the reigning champs are able to touch up tonight’s starter and ride a strong offensive showing for a win.