MLB’s Sunday slates continue to start earlier and earlier, so to save you time and provide you with better bets, we’re going to use a “quick hit” format for today’s best bets.
All lines provided by PointsBet.
Red Sox – Orioles over 10.5 (-121)
Extreme hitter’s park, extreme hitter’s friendly weather, extremely hittable pitching staffs. Runs should be scored early and often.
Brewers-Pirates under 9.5 (-131)
Pirates under 3.5 (-110)
Two punch-less lineups further watered down by Josh Bell being given the day off. Corbin Burnes is a near lock for a quality start. You can consider the Brewers to win as well, although there’s not much value with the line hovering around -196. Bullpens have been the bane of a bettor’s existence so far this season.
Twins-Royals over 9.5 (-136)
Great hitting weather should help negate some of Kauffman Stadium’s run-squashing characteristics. Minnesota is rolling with a bullpen day and while their moneyline would be a better bet if their lineup were healthy, I think both teams have more than enough firepower – and more than enough factors in their favor today – to hit the over. I think the Twins score enough against KC starter Kris Bubic to turn over a lead to the back-half of their bullpen, and if that’s the case, I don’t think they give it back.
White Sox-Cubs under 10.5 (-141)
The wind’s blowing out at Wrigley Field, but Yu Darvish and Dylan Cease both have enough talent to mitigate damage and toss quality starts. Kris Bryant has hit the DL and I wouldn’t be surprised for both lineups to be watered down further on a travel day. I’m beginning to categorically distrust bullpens this season, but think both starters produce strong enough performances that it won’t matter either way. You can’t score runs if you can’t make contact.
Astros-Padres under 9 (-125)
Houston is home to the walking wounded. San Diego is home to one of the most pitcher-friendly parks in baseball. With Zack Greinke starting (projected to be a near-lock for a quality start) and the serviceable Adrian Morejon opposing him, I think runs will be in short supply this afternoon.
7-inning total under 7 (-125)
Dylan Bundy’s breakout is long overdue, but sustainable. He has carved up this Oakland twice already the season and I expect him to have a strong start again today. If you remove Frankie Montas’s last start – a 1.2 IP shellacking against Arizona were he was tuned up for 9 ER – his 4.74 ERA drops considerably, as does his outlying peripherals. This is a decent bounce-back spot for him. I trust both pitchers today, but I don’t trust either bullpen game-to-game, so I’m looking at the 7-inning total, as well as the Angels to eek out the victory.
Indians -1.5 (-125)
Carlos Carrasco projects to be the best starting pitcher taking the mound this afternoon. Tarik Skubal will have a long and successful MLB career, but is a few years away from fully developing. The difference in talent between today’s lineups is galling. Cleveland should win comfortably.