Date: Saturday, August 13, 2022
Main card: 9 p.m. ET / 2 a.m. BST
Main event ringwalks (approx): 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. BST
Network: ESPN

Teofimo Lopez (17-1, 12 KOs) was riding high after his monumental lightweight victory over then-undefeated Vasyl Lomachenko. He had dethroned the pound-for-pound king – and rather easily, it seemed. He had arrived on the big stage and fights with other lightweight stars were on the horizon.

Then something happened.

George Kambosas, lightly regarded by many, came to New York and took the unified championship from Lopez. Whether he had a bad night, couldn’t make weight, or didn’t prepare correctly, it was a devastating defeat to the young star’s resume and ego like. So now the question that needs answered is how the young star will (or won’t) bounce back.

Lopez, now operating at junior welterweight, is aiming to become a two-division world champion. He wants a fight with the winner of the Josh Taylor-Jack Catterall rematch. But standing in his way is Pedro Campa.

Campa (34-1-1, 23 KO’s) is so disregarded that he doesn’t even have a Wikipedia page. He has only fought outside of Mexico once. Unsurprisingly, he’s a major underdog, with odds to win sitting at +950 at the time of this writing. Lopez is a heavy -2500 favorite.

The only value plays I see here are round props. I like Lopez by stoppage, but I think the best play is to bet on when he gets it. The over-under for this bout comes in at 5.5 rounds and already has been juiced up to -160 odds.

I think Lopez will have some rust. I think Lopez will win by knockout – he has to, given the difference in talent – but Campa has only been stopped once in his career. We all know the heart of many Mexican fighters has willed them into the later rounds of fights that shouldn’t have lasted that long.

You can consider Over 5.5 rounds at +125 at DraftKings. But I’m going to take the round prop for the fight to end between Rounds 7-8.

Pick: Lopez to win in Rounds 7-8 (+500) at DraftKings