We have a fascinating Sunday slate on tap today – a fitting way to end a fantastic first week of baseball.
The first month of MLB always has more variance than usual – pitchers aren’t stretched out, position battles and platoons are still taking shape, and winter weather often lingers – so we’ll look to lean on our projections and partners like Ballpark Pal to help us find betting value in today’s games.
Let’s get after it.
Astros at Angels
Astros RHP Jose Urquidy isn’t a starter I usually pick on, but today is going to be an exception to the rule. The weather and matchup impacts are quite extreme.
Today’s weather is going to give bats a boost at Angel Stadium. While a shootout isn’t projected, we can expect well-hit balls to carry. This is bad news for Urquidy, who generates ground balls at only a 33.9% career rate.
Much of Urquidy’s success relies on generating soft contact. The 26-year-old has a strong 30.8 Hard% for his career. However, his 7.45 K/9 and 11.4% SwStr% are below average. The Angels should have no problem making contact and elevating the ball this afternoon.
I need to see extreme value on a player’s HR prop to back it. I don’t see that for any Angels bats – Shohei Ohtani (+220) and Mike Trout (+195) seem priced appropriately – but I do think the market is undervaluing the Total Bases markets.
Models project both Ohtani and Trout to get >1.10 hits today, and I think they’ll be of the extra base variety. The All-World talents also have hit 1-2 in the lineup for each of the team’s first 3 games, so they should have ample ABs to clear their Total Base props of 1.5 at DraftKings.
Astros at Angels Best Bets:
- Shohei Ohtani over 1.5 total bases (-105)
- Mike Trout over 1.5 total bases (-115)
- Jose Altuve over 1.5 total bases (+110)
- Both teams to score 4 runs (+110)
Lines below provided by PointsBet
- Blue Jays OVER 5.5 runs (-105)
- Marlins-Giants UNDER 8 runs (-131)
- Brewers (-131)
- White Sox (-125)
- Byron Buxton to record 2+ total bases (-130)
- Vlad Guerrero Jr. to record 2+ total bases (-130)
- George Springer to record 2+ total bases (-115)