EPL Matchday 38 Betting Picks
The final day of the Premier League season is upon us, with just one point separating league leaders Manchester City from second placed Liverpool. With the title, Champions League and relegation battles all alive on Matchday 38, fans are in store for an epic ending to the season.
Manchester City vs Aston Villa
Sunday 11am ET, Etihad Stadium
Manchester City were held to a 2-2 draw by West Ham last week, but they still sit one point ahead of Liverpool, meaning a City win against Aston Villa will secure the title. This match will be Aston Villa’s second game in four days after playing Burnley on Thursday. With Villa having nothing to gain out of their final two games of the season, this is the perfect scenario for City.
The reigning champions have once again been the bench mark at both ends of the pitch, leading the Premier League for goals scored (96) and fewest goals conceded (24) for the second consecutive season. City have been unstoppable at home this season, picking up 44 of a possible 54 points at the Etihad.
Since November, the league leaders have won 22 of their 27 games, while losing just once and their form in the last decade against Villa is just as impressive. In their last twenty Premier League fixtures against Aston Villa, Manchester City have a 16-2-2 record, with an aggregate score of 51-12. It’s all there to play for on Sunday morning and this City side is in the perfect position to win their fourth title in five seasons.
Arsenal vs Everton
Sunday 11am ET, Emirates Stadium
It’s been a horror week for Arsenal who have all but lost their chance at Champions League football for the first time since 2016-17. Consecutive losses to Tottenham and Newcastle saw the Gunners go from four points clear in fourth position, to two points behind their North London rivals in fifth position. With Tottenham playing bottom of the league Norwich, it’s hard to see them dropping points that Arsenal need them to. This clash is crucial for Everton if they don’t win on Thursday afternoon against Crystal Palace, they’ll head into the final game of the season needing a win to guarantee their status in the Premier League for next season.
Everton are currently two points clear of the relegation zone, however Burnley and Leeds have easier games against Newcastle and Brentford. Given the Gunners struggles at the back in their last two games, Mikel Arteta will need to make some changes, but given they’re coming up against an Everton defence that has conceded 59 goals (the 6th most this season), they’ll be confident that they will be able to blast through the Toffees defence.
Everton will be playing their second game in four days and if they can’t beat Crystal Palace, this game will become an almighty struggle against an Arsenal side coming off a seven day break. There’s plenty at stake for both sides so this will be a fascinating encounter, but Arsenal will be too good.
Brentford vs Leeds United
Sunday 11am ET, Brentford Community Stadium
Leeds’ Premier League hopes rely on Burnley not winning their game in hand on Thursday afternoon against Aston Villa. If the Clarets fail to win, Leeds will head into the final day of the season one point clear of the relegation zone as they head to Brentford. Brentford come into the final game of the season with a 5-1-1 record in their last seven games, in what has been an excellent first campaign in the top flight of English football.
Leeds’ inability to live up to their impressive campaign in their return to the Premier League last season has come largely on their weakness in defence. Leeds have the nineteenth ranked defence in the Premier League this season, conceding 78 goals. Leeds have conceded six goals in their last two games, while Brentford have scored six goals in their last two games.
Leeds have won only one of their last seven matches and face an opposition that has gone 5-1-1 in that same time period. Leeds will come out firing with their Premier League lives on the line, however they just don’t have the quality to beat a Brentford side that is playing excellent football.