The pound-for-pound king of boxing Saul ‘Canelo’ Alvarez (57-1-2, 39 KOs) returns this weekend on one of the most important dates the sport has, Cinco de Mayo weekend. He moves up to light heavyweight to take on 175-pound champion Dmitry Bivol (19-0, 11 KOs) in what many people are calling his toughest fight since Gennady “GGG” Golovkin. Canelo is a pretty heavy favorite at the sportsbooks, though.
Are the Alvarez-Bivol odds right or is there betting value to be found?
Let’s see what type of action we can find for this Saturday’s big fight.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Dmitry Bivol Odds
Date: Saturday, May 7
Time: 8 p.m. ET / 1 a.m. GMT
Main event ringwalks (approx): 11 p.m. ET / 4 a.m. GMT
Network: DAZN PPV
Alvarez opened as a -400 favorite. Money has slowly and consistently poured in on Canelo, and his odds now sit at -500 or above at most regulated online sportsbooks. Fight outcome and method of victory prop bets at DraftKings are as follow:
- Dmitry Bivol by Decision or Technical Decision (+700)
- Dmitry Bivol by KO, TKO or DQ (+900)
- Draw (+1800)
- Canelo Alvarez by Decision or Technical Decision (-150)
- Canelo Alvarez by KO, TKO or DQ (+230)
Canelo is one of the most popular fighters in all of boxing. Even at heavy odds, money should continue to flow into his side through the opening bell.
The odds are wide and will remain that way. Has that opened up any betting value?
Alvarez vs. Bivol Prediction
Canelo Alvarez has been collecting belts from 160-175 pounds the last few years. He has been moving up and down in weight and looking impressive at every stop. He has beaten the likes of Danny Jacobs and Callum Smith by decision. He has stopped Billy Joe Saunders, Caleb Plant, Sergey Kovalev, and Avril Yildrim. No matter the outcome, Canelo has consistently looked impressive and does not show any signs of slowing down anytime soon.
Though Dmitry Bivol’s recent run has not been spectacular, most people think he is one of the top fighters in his decision – if not the top fighter. He has a list of unanimous decision wins over Isaac Chilemba, Joe Smith Jr., and Jean Pascal. He has also stopped the likes of Cedric Agnew and Sullivan Barrera. Maybe of these are not household names, but they are all quality wins inside the 175-pound division.
Bivol will have a 5-inch height advantage and 2-inch reach advantage over Canelo. He will certainly be the bigger man in the fight. He’s big, but Bivol also has constant mobility. His frequent jab and his venomous two- and three-punch combinations might bother Canelo the whole fight.
Canelo has shown in his two close fights with Golovkin that he is susceptible to a good jab. He will have to overcome that on Saturday night. What Canelo will lack in size and reach, he will make up with speed and power. Canelo has fast hands and fast feet – the likes of which I do not think Bivol has seen in his career as of yet. Canelo has seen Bivol’s style in spots against Golovkin and to a degree against Kovalev. Both men gave Canelo all he could handle for much of their fights. He also has seen someone that uses movement in his last fight with Caleb Plant.
This fight will be a tricky one; Bivol is in his prime, has had a proper camp, and has close to elite if not elite boxing ability. He will have to slow Canelo down with his jab and use his mobility to frustrate Canelo. He has to use his size to try to get Canelo’s respect. Canelo on the other hand will have to do his best to use his speed to get inside and punish the bigger man to the body. Canelo hip and head movement is some of the best in the sport. He will have to use his power to the body to bring Bivol’s hands down to attack the chin of Bivol. Canelo has one of the better chins in the sport and I think that will be a reason he will come out on top among all the other factors.
If Canelo is able to limit the Bivol jab with his head movement and absorb the punch combos that may come, he should be able to give Bivol all he can handle on the inside which will leave Bivol open upstairs. I like Canelo outpointing Bivol in a close fight in Las Vegas.
Canelo Alvarez vs. Bivol Expert Pick
This fight will be a tricky one.
Bivol is in his prime, has had a proper camp, and has close to elite – if not legitimately elite – boxing ability. He will have to slow Canelo down with his jab and use his mobility to frustrate Canelo. He will have to use his size to try to get Canelo’s respect. For some boxers, that would just be the plan on paper, but Bivol could very well turn this strategy into reality.
Across the ring, Canelo will have to do his best to use his speed to get inside and punish the bigger man to the body. Canelo’s hip and head movement is some of the best in the sport. He will have to use his power to the body to bring Bivol’s hands down to attack the chin. Canelo has one of the better chins in the sport, so if he takes any hard shots on the inside, he should be able to weather them per usual. While there are other factors, I think Canelo’s chin is the reason he will come out on top.
Alvarez vs. Bivol Best Bet
If Canelo is able to limit Bivol’s jab with his head movement and absorb the punch combos that surely will come, he should be able to give the Russian all he can handle on the inside. This in-fighting will leave Bivol open upstairs. Canelo should be able to work effectively, but Bivol has enough of an all-around size advantage that I don’t think he will get stopped.
My pick and best bet: Canelo outpointing Bivol in a close fight.
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