This weekend’s boxing schedule is packed with three world title fights and a prospect step-up fight. A lot of the betting odds and latest lines are wavering heavily on the favorites, but let’s see if we can find some type of value in these fights.
We’ll start with our picks and predictions for Friday’s ESPN boxing card. The February 3 telecast will air live from the Desert Diamond Arena in Glendale, Arizona and will be headlined by Navarrete vs. Wilson, with Pedraza vs. Barboza serving as the co-main feature.
Emanuel Navarrete vs. Liam Wilson Prediction, Odds & Pick
On Friday night’s ESPN+ card. the co-main feature is a fight between Arnold Barboza Jr. and José Pedraza.
Barboza Jr. is coming into this fight with an undefeated record of 27-0 (10 KOs). His last fight was 6 months and 19 days ago against Danielito Zorrilla, which he won via a 10-round unanimous decision.
Pedraza comes in with a record of 29-4-1 (14 KOs). His last fight was 5 months and 7 days ago against Richard Commey, which ended in a draw.
Barboza is a very big betting favorite at -650, while Pedraza is priced at +425. Pedraza is a former two-division world champion, but is 3-2-1 in his last 6 fights. At this point, he’s a barometer to test how high a rising contender can climb, and there’s nothing wrong with that.
Barboza isn’t a guy that is going to put big pressure on fighters who can box, and that’s what Pedraza is. On the other side, Pedraza can’t deal with big punchers, and that’s who Barboza is.
Call me slightly crazy, but I think this is a type of fight Pedraza can spoil. At +425, the odds imply that Pedraza wins only 19% of the time. That’s too heavy. I like him at that price and will throw some change on +425.
Value Pick: Pedraza to win (+425 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Arnold Barboza Jr. vs. Jose Pedraza Prediction, Odds & Pick
In Friday’s main event, Emanuel Navarrete and Liam Wilson fight for the vacant WBO super-featherweight title.
Navarrete is coming into this fight with a record of 36-1 (30 KOs). His last fight was 5 months and 14 days ago against Eduardo Baez, which he won via 6th-round KO.
Wilson comes in with a record of 11-1 (7 KOs). His last fight was 7 months and 5 days ago against Matias Carlos Adrian Rueda, which he won via 10-round unanimous decision.
Navarette is a massive favorite at -2000, while Wilson is a huge underdog at +900. These are steep odds.
Navarette is the bigger man and the bigger puncher. WIlson is giving up a lot of size and reach. He’ll be under fire for most of the bout, too.
I think Navarette is an easy pick here. However, if there are no good props, I’m staying away. It would take a $2000 bet to return just $100 in winnings. That’s far from the type of betting value we like to look for.
Betting Pick: No Betting Value at DraftKings Sportsbook
Fight Pick: Navarrete to win