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Benavidez vs. Plant Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

Benavidez vs. Plant Prediction, Odds & Expert Pick

As far as bad blood goes in boxing, you can be hard-pressed to find two men that dislike each other more than David Benavidez and Caleb Plant.

Both fighters have been on social media relentlessly taking shots at each other. Then, when they came face-to-face to announce this weekend’s much-anticipated bout at the MGM Grand in Las Vegas, they nearly came to blows. Benavidez was shouting obscenities at Plant, while Plant retorted that his opponent lost a world title twice because he was fat and had been doing cocaine.

Needless to say, the “Bad Blood” moniker is perfect for the main event of Showtime’s pay-per-view telecast. 

Let’s take a look at this matchup and see where we might find betting value based off our Benavidez vs. Plant prediction.

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David Benavidez vs. Caleb Plant Prediction

This Super Middleweight contest will be for an interim WBC belt, making the winner of the fight a likely opponent for Canelo Alvarez in the future.

Plant (22-1, 13 KOs) has already climbed the mountain and landed a massive Canelo payday. Though he came up short, he did account for himself well. He lost via TKO in the 11th round of their November 2021 tilt. Plant returned to the ring in October 2022 with a KO-of-the-Year-caliber highlight-reel stoppage of former two-time world champion Anthony Dirrell.

Benavidez (26-0, 23 KOs) may not have a thick resume outside of knocking out the aforementioned Anthony Dirrell, but many people have been high on his talent and knockout power for the length of his decade-long career. That said, he has had no shortage of setbacks in his career – which Plant has not failed to mention.

In 2018, Benavidez tested positive for cocaine, which caused him to be stripped of his WBC Super Middleweight title. He won that belt back in 2020, but was again stripped of the title – this time for failing to make weight.

He has lost the same world title twice, without ever having lost it in the ring. Only in boxing.

Still only 26 years old, Benavidez now will face his biggest test in Plant. A win here would definitely put him at the forefront for other major fights.

While Plant may be the more technical boxer of the two, Benavidez is the one with the power advantage. He has scored 23 knockouts in 26 fights. I ultimately think this will be the difference.

This fight will be a tale of both fighters. Much like in the Canelo fight, Plant will start fast and frustrate Benavidez early with his movement, hand speed, and some clinches. But as the fight goes on, much like in the Canelo fight, Benavidez will start to catch up to Plant. And, again, much like against Canelo, I see Benavidez eventually hurting him and getting the stoppage in the second half of the fight. 

Benavidez is -330 to win while Plant is +240. If you think Plant can keep boxing for 12 rounds against a bigger puncher than Canelo, that is a good price. I like Benavidez at -140 to get the stoppage and more so in the second half of the fight at +145.

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Benavidez vs. Plant Odds & Pick

Benavidez currently sits as a -330 favorite to win, while Plant is a modest underdog at +240. If you think Plant can keep boxing for 12 rounds against a bigger puncher than Canelo, than that is a good price for you to consider.

I don’t think that will happen, though. Based off my prediction, I like Benavidez at -140 to get the stoppage. I like this even more if you wager on him to score the stoppage in the second half of the fight, which is priced at +145.

Pick: Benavidez to win by KO, TKO or DQ (-140)

Also Consider: Benavidez to win in Rounds 7-12 (+145)

Benavidez vs. Plant Undercard Picks

Showtime has loaded up the Benavidez vs. Plant undercard with some intriguing fights that should entertain anyone who ponies up to buy this PPV. 

Chris Colbert vs. Jose Valenzuela Pick

Chris Colbert (16-1, 6 KOs) heads into a very important lightweight fight against Jose Valenzuela (12-1, 8 KOs). Both fighters are coming off the first defeats of their respective careers and need wins to get back on track.

Valenzuela currently sits as a slight underdog at +105, but may turn into the favorite when it’s all said and done. I’ve never been sold on Colbert when things get tough for him, and this will be a grind-out fight. I like “Rayo” Valenzuela here.

Pick: Jose Valenzuela to win (+105)

Other Weekend Action

We love to find betting value when we bet on boxing, and there’s one fight in particular I love this weekend that’s not on the Benavidez vs. Plant PPV.

Jose Ramirez vs. Richard Commey Prediction

Jose Ramirez (27-1, 17 KOs) takes on former lightweight champion Richard Commey (30-4, 27 KOs) this Saturday on an ESPN+ card. While this is a fight no one really is hyped for – plus Ramirez is a huge 9-to-1 favorite – there’s a play I really like in this one.

Commey is well past it, no matter how much Ramirez’s handlers want to tell you he’s still dangerous. He isn’t. 

Commey is an “old” 36 years old. He’s 1-2-1 in his last four fights and has been in many hard-fought bouts over his career. While he will still get fights as a gatekeeper for young prospects or former champions coming back from losses, his days of being a contender are far past him. 

I see Ramirez being all over Commey and getting a stoppage win. Ramirez may not possess one-punch KO power, but I see him outworking Commey, hurting him, and eventually stopping him late. At +200, this seems like good value and a great play to me. 

Pick: Ramirez to win by KO, TKO or DQ (+200)

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