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2021 AFL: Finals Week 3 Betting Picks

2021 AFL: Finals Week 3 Betting Picks

The 2021 Australian Football League (AFL) finals series continue this weekend with two huge preliminary finals. Catch our best betting picks for both matches right here and good luck to everyone following!

AFL Preliminary Finals Betting Picks

Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats

Optus Stadium, Friday 5:50am ET

Melbourne defeated Geelong in dramatic fashion in the final game of the home and away season, which resulted in them finishing as the minor premiers for the first time since 1964. They certainly made the most of their home qualifying final when smashing Brisbane at Adelaide Oval by 33 points in an easy wire-to-wire win.

Geelong let their chances of finishing in the top two slip when they gave up a huge lead against Melbourne in Round 23, which made their finals series a whole lot tougher than it needed to be. They kicked things off with a really disappointing loss on the road against Port Adelaide in their qualifying final, but were able to bounce back with a big win over GWS last weekend to reach yet another prelim.

What an exciting match these two played when they met just a few weeks ago in Geelong. As mentioned above, the Demons won that match at the death and have gone on with some momentum since, while the Cats have seen their form dip a touch or two. Regardless, we see the ‘unders’ in the total points as the best way to play the first prelim of the weekend. During the season these clubs were ranked #1 and #2 in defence and there has also been an average of just 137 points scored from their last five meetings, so it’s fair to see we expect goals to be at an absolute premium on Friday.

Port Adelaide Power vs Western Bulldogs

Adelaide Oval, Saturday 5:40am ET

Port Adelaide finished the home and away season in the best form of any club and that resulted in them finishing in the top two and earning a home qualifying final against Geelong. The Power certainly weren’t mucking around in said final, destroying the Cats by 43 points in front of a raucous crowd in Adelaide to earn themselves their second home prelim in two seasons.

The Western Bulldogs found themselves in the top two or three on the ladder for the majority of the home and away season, but a poor three-game losing streak from Round 21-23 saw them slip to fifth on the ladder and as a result, cough up the double-chance. Regardless, the Bulldogs have been able to take care of business in both do-or-die finals to date and will travel to Adelaide in some solid winning form.

These clubs met each other only three weeks ago at the end of the home and away season and it was the Power who were able to get over the line by two points. As a result, they’ll start at around 14-point favorites on their home deck, which is a spread we don’t see any value in. Instead, we like the look of the ‘unders’ in the total points market once again. Combined, the ‘unders’ have saluted in 11 of the 15 games these teams have played against top six opposition this season and when they met just a couple of weeks ago the total score was just 130. We’re expecting something similar again on Saturday.

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