Our picks trended back up in Week 4, breaking even at 7-7 but returning +3.7 units thanks to 4 of our 5 biggest bets hitting. Week 5 is another slate of intriguing games, so let’s get straight into the analysis with our NFL Week 5 betting picks.
If you want to stay up to date with our 2021-22 NFL season results, you can check out our NFL results spreadsheet.
NFL Week 5 Betting Picks
Los Angeles Rams at Seattle Seahawks
Thursday October 7th, 8.20pm (ET)
The Rams hit the first speed bump in a season full of promise, when failing to contain an electric Kyler Murray led Cardinals outfit in Week 4. Another strong NFC opponent awaits, although the Seahawks are somewhat less daunting in their current state. With both teams on a short week, the Hawks have injury clouds over both star receivers D.K. Metcalf and Tyler Lockett, lead running back Chris Carson, and various defensive players. The Rams have a much shorter injury report.
Another factor which can be used in close decisions is coaching. It’s a tad harsh, but 35 year old Sean McVay is literally half the age of counterpart Pete Carroll, and demonstrates a much better understanding of what it takes to win in the modern NFL. The Rams gameplan is consistently making better use of their elite players (Stafford, Kupp, Ramsey, Donald), than the Seahawks do of the likes of Russel Wilson, Metcalf, and Jamal Adams.
Despite being on the road, I have faith that the Rams are both a stronger overall outfit, and in better shape. They’ll be motivated to bounce back from a humbling loss, and I’m very happy to take on the narrow spread.
Buffalo Bills at Kansas City Chiefs
Sunday October 10th, 8.20pm (ET)
Another mouthwatering primetime game awaits, with the Bills one of several teams gunning for the lofty perch held by the Chiefs after making the last two Super Bowls. After a bad Week 1 loss, the Bills have won three straight, with a 118-21 scoreline in those games. The opposition is far stiffer this week, but it is clear that the defence is in great shape, having conceded the least points in the NFL through 4 weeks. The 134 points scored is equal 2nd in the NFL, tied with the Chiefs. After an incredibly strong 2020 season, the only conclusion to be drawn is that the Bills have taken another step forward.
Meanwhile the Chiefs are 2-2, having suffered humbling losses to the scrappy Ravens and the ascending Chargers. As expected from a Patrick Mahomes offense, scoring points has been no problem. On the other side of the ball, the team has conceded the 3rd most points in the NFL so far, and have showed almost no sign of being able to slow down their opposition.
I don’t feel confident favouring either side of a fairly narrow 2.5 point spread, but I do like the over. The Bills will have a harder time slowing the Chiefs than any of their previous opponents, while the Chiefs have almost no chance to limit Josh Allen & co.
Indianapolis Colts at Baltimore Ravens
Monday October 11th, 8.15pm (ET)
After a horrible start to the season, the Colts chalked up their first win in Week 4. However, given that it was over the equally underwhelming Dolphins, it hardly counts. The play of the offense continues to be of major concern, with new QB Carson Wentz failing to rebound from a horrible final season in Philadelphia, and most of his receivers struggling to step up into bigger roles. Second year running back Jonathan Taylor is the team’s primary beacon of hope, but has been playing injured so far this season. Injuries on both the offensive and defensive lines doesn’t help.
The Ravens are another team struggling with injuries throughout all position groups. However, the team is still full of talent, and some of their key players are able to keep things moving, with a 3-1 record after a tight OT loss to the Raiders in week 1. Lamar Jackson and his favourite targets Marquise Brown and Mark Andrews are doing enough, and the defence is producing at a middling level. That should be more than enough to contain the anaemic Colts offense on the Monday Night stage. It’s a big spread to overcome, but it feels like the Ravens will be up for it.
Neither team is easy to trust, thanks to a too-young QB for the Jets and a too-old QB for the Falcons. I believe more in Zach Wilson blossoming, and I also have more faith in the Jets coaching and defence, so a small bet.
The Drew Lock vs Ben Roethlisberger battle is not high on anyone’s watch list this week. But I will take the small spread against the 3-1 Broncos over the 1-3 Steelers.
The Lions are an enigma. No part of them looks good, but they are able to put up a fight. The Vikings are a middling team at best, I’m not willing to take on one of the biggest spreads of the week.
The plucky Bengals are a dangerous opponent, while the Packers aren’t burying anyone so far. Not confident on backing either side, but I can see a 34-30 type of game.
The Dolphins are perhaps the most underwhelming team of the season so far, and I don’t think the biggest spread of the week is high enough. The reigning champs will overwhelm them.
The Texans look truly horrible with Davis Mills at quarterback, while Mac Jones showed he can play against the Bucs in week 4. I’ll tentatively take on the big spread as the Texans will struggle to score.
Neither team is great to watch, but Washington has to be happy with the play of Taylor Heinecke and the return of Curtis Samuel, while also hoping the defence can return to last seasons lofty standards.
Jalen Hurts and Sam Darnold are both winning their doubters over this season, while the Panthers coaching and defensive units are perhaps a little more desirable than the Eagles. I’ll favour a bet on the total instead of backing the favourites.
We saw Lawrence play a bit like peak Tannehill last week, but with a lot more upside. The Titans will try to grind them down, but I think they can move the ball enough to have a chance
The Raiders showed they won’t be able to run with the top teams last week, while the Bears got a glimpse of the future with Justin Fields showing off his talent. I think the Bears can hope to cause an upset, but I’ll take the head start on offer.
That the Chargers are favourites says a lot about how impressive the Justin Herbert-Brandon Staley show has been so far, because the Browns are a damn good football team. I’m still going to buy into the hype and favour the bolts at home.
The Cowboys are looking strong throughout the roster, while the Giants are middling at best in every aspect except for Saquon Barkley. It’s time for the Cowboys to put on a show for the home crowd.
Suddenly one of the most feared opponents in the NFL, the breakout MVP-favourite Kyler Murray is far ahead of first time starter Trey Lance in maturity. The Cardinals can comfortably remain unbeaten.