The Australian Football League (AFL) continues this weekend with Round 4! Last weekend we started off slow by missing on our first three plays but our fortunes quickly turned and we hit on each of our last five picks to finish with a 5-3 record. We’ll now look to carry the form over to Round 4 as we present our best picks for all nine matches. Good luck to everyone following!
AFL Round 4 Betting Picks
Sydney Swans vs Western Bulldogs
Thursday 5:40am ET
The Swans caused a mini upset last weekend when they defeated the then undefeated Kangaroos by 11 points. Sydney’s younger brigade are starting to put in consistent shifts every week and none have been better than budding superstar Isaac Heeney who has had a dominant start to the season.
The Bulldogs finally hit their straps in 2020 with a dominant win over the Giants in Round 3. It was a fantastic team effort and one that will be their benchmark moving forward. Now 1-2 on the season, the Dogs will be desperate to even the ledger in the shortened season.
This is an interesting little fixture we have on our hands to kick off Round 4. The Swans (2-1) have exceeded our expectations early and could easily be 3-0 coming into this weekend. Despite this, we believe the Dogs have a higher ceiling and if they can produce a similar effort to last weekend, then they should be getting the job done here. It should be a close game to start a fantastic weekend of footy, but we give the slight edge to the exciting Dogs outfit.
GWS Giants vs Collingwood Magpies
Friday 5:50am ET
The Giants have struggled in both games back from the hiatus and need to start ticking over the wins sooner rather than later in this shortened season. The good news for the orange army is they’re expecting to be at full strength with Josh Kelly and Toby Greene both in the mix for selection.
The Magpies dealt with a potential danger game against the Saints with flying colors, defeating them by a comfortable 44 points at the MCG. The Magpies remain one of three teams’ undefeated coming into Round 4 and are now the favorites to take out the Minor Premiership.
What a fantastic clash we have here between two clubs that met in a thrilling Preliminary Final in 2019. The Giants have been poor over the past fortnight but will be desperate to bounce back, while the Magpies will be looking to continue their form and get some vengeance over their loss in the final hurdle last season. This should be a cracking game and we’ve struggled to give either team the edge here, so we’ll be opting for the any other result in the wire to wire market.
Port Adelaide Power vs West Coast Eagles
Friday 11:45pm ET
Port Adelaide have been dominant in all three of their games this season and have shortened substantially in the Premiership market as a result. The Power were tested early against the Dockers last weekend but were able to respond with a match-winning second quarter performance to retain top spot on the ladder.
In contrast to the Power, West Coast have had plenty of struggles in the early part of their campaign. Many (including us) expected them to bounce back against the Lions last weekend, but again they were poor. Their star-studded midfield has been extremely poor and their forwards have been starved of opportunity. It’s still early in the season but the Eagles need to hit their straps before the loss tally gets too high.
The Power have been the far better of the two clubs thus far, however, the Eagles historically fare well against them and we expect them to play with a lot higher intensity this weekend. Expect this to be a grit and grind type match with goals being an absolute premium.
St Kilda Saints vs Richmond Tigers
Saturday 2:35am ET
The Saints were fantastic in their win over the Bulldogs in Round 2 but were unable to produce a similar level of performance against the Magpies last weekend. They were thoroughly outplayed through the midfield and their forwards had limited chances to make an impact. The Saints are now 1-2 on the season and aren’t fancied by many to push for a finals berth.
The Tigers came into Round 3 at 1-1-0 and as the clear favorites to topple the Hawks at the MCG. However, the reigning premiers were horrid from the first bounce to the last and never looked likely of claiming the four points. It was a strange performance from the champs, but it just may be one that they need to give them some added motivation.
Ever since the Saints demolished the Tigers in 2017 the Tigers have been comfortable winners. They’ve won the four meetings since by margins of 39, 28, 54 and 33 points and haven’t been threatened in any capacity. We expect something similar this weekend with the Tigers cruising to victory in a bounce back win.
Essendon Bombers vs Carlton Blues
Saturday 5:40am ET
The Bombers were dealt a blow last weekend when Connor McKenna was diagnosed with Covid19, which meant their game against the Demons was postponed. There’s been some good news this week however, and by all reports the Dons will be playing against the Blues on Saturday as scheduled.
We expected the Blues to be a little bit competitive against Geelong at the Cattery last weekend, but we certainly didn’t expect them to win. It was a fantastic win for the club and one that they will be hoping will be a sign of brighter things to come. Patty Cripps was enormous again and Eddie Betts put plenty of smiles on faces with his vintage performance up forward.
The Blues have been competitive in all three of their games this season and the Bombers come into this at 2-0 after two narrow wins. We do give the undefeated Bombers the slight edge here but don’t have enough confidence in them to cover the line. Instead, we’ll be playing the wire to wire markets again, which we’ve had plenty of success with this season.
Gold Coast Suns vs Fremantle Dockers
Saturday 5:40am ET
The Suns made it back to back wins in 2020 when they demolished the decimated Crows at Metricon last weekend. They’ve been the feel good story this season and have emerged as one of the most exciting teams to watch for the neutral fan. It’s been a long time coming but the Suns look as though they’re finally on the rise.
The Dockers brought the pressure to the Power in the first term last weekend but were unable to keep it up once the torrential rain set in. It was another nearly game for the Dockers who are now 0-3 on the season and look like they’ll be settling in the bottom half of the ladder again.
As mentioned above, the Suns are an exciting young team that is playing with a huge amount of heart at the moment. We can’t see them slowing down against the Dockers, especially on their home turf, so we’ll be riding the wave with them and backing them in to cover the spread.
Brisbane Lions vs Adelaide Crows
Saturday 11:05pm ET
The Lions were impressive against the Eagles last weekend, particularly in the third quarter where they really put their foot down. They’re now 2-1 on the season and look to have avoided the second year blues that many thought would strike. Lachie Neale is going from strength to strength and is staking his claim as one of the best players in the competition.
The Crows were always going to struggle this season but no one expected them to be this bad. They’ve been absolutely dreadful in both of their games back from the hiatus and have even been labelled as not being ‘AFL standard’ by one of the game’s greats. Where to from here for the Crows? No one quite knows at this point in time.
The Lions are clearly the better team in this matchup but the line has been set at a whopping 31.5 points, which is hard for any team to cover with the shortened quarters. We do expect the Crows to show a bit more spirit this weekend after copping so much from the media, but we don’t see them kicking a big enough score to compete for the win; instead, we like this game to go under the total points spread.
Melbourne Demons vs Geelong Cats
Sunday 1:35am ET
The Demons were unfortunate last weekend when Bombers player Connor McKenna was diagnosed with Covid19, which meant their match was postponed. Prior to that the Demons were narrow winners against the Blues in a result that doesn’t look all that bad after the Blues defeated the fancied Cats in Round 3.
As we just mentioned, the Cats lost in a huge upset against the Blues last weekend which absolutely no one saw coming. They were really poor for the best part of three quarters and only managed to hit their straps in the fourth, which was nearly enough to steal the win. The Cats are now 1-2 on the season and will be desperate to get back to winning ways.
The Demons have been OK this season and will be winning a handful of games no doubt; however, we don’t think this will be one of them. The Cats were embarrassed last weekend and will be out for blood against the Demons to make amends. We expect them to win this without too many troubles.
Hawthorn Hawks vs North Melbourne Kangaroos
Sunday 4:05am ET
The Hawks were one of the performers of the round last weekend when they upset the Tigers. They came out of the blocks firing and never let up in what was their second really impressive win this season. Barring the listless loss against the Cats in Round 2, the Hawks have looked every bit like a top eight side.
North Melbourne fans were brought back down to earth last weekend when the Kangaroos were upstaged by the Swans. A 3-0 start was simply too good to be true but 2-1 through three games is more than what they could’ve hoped for prior to the season commencing. The Roos have a bunch of young stars on the rise and would be thrilled with what they’ve seen thus far.
As good as North have been this season we just can’t look past the Hawks this weekend. They were simply superb against the reigning premiers last weekend and as long as they produce something close to that effort, then they’ll be good enough to secure a comfortable win to close out Round 4.
Pick: Hawthorn Hawks -8.5 (-112 DraftKings)